‘West 2013’ military exercise: nuclear threat myth plays into hands of few
The joint strategic military exercise ‘West 2013’ was held in Belarus and Russia on September 20th – 26th, 2013. According to media reports, during a training exercise near the Polish border, Belarus and Russia worked on the scenario of a preventive nuclear attack on Warsaw.
Rumours about ‘a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Warsaw’ training, are advantageous for those who are interested in strengthening NATO presence in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic. For Belarus, increased NATO presence in the region might mean that Lukashenko’s importance grows in the eyes of Russia.
Initially, information about Russo-Belarusian military exercises and ‘a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Warsaw’ training was published in Polska, a Polish newspaper, in April 2013 with reference to unofficial sources. Later on, it was reprinted by other Western media. The Belarusian government sources refuted the message immediately.
In February 2013 The Washington Times published an article about nuclear military exercises in Russia, citing officials from the Pentagon and the European Command of U.S. forces. The sources said Russia held large-scale exercises on the transportation of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons closer to Europe.
Simultaneously, in February 2013, President Lukashenko approved a plan for the Russo-Belarusian military exercise ‘West 2013’. He emphasized the need to include territorial defence forces in the training. The incumbent president has a priority to maintain domestic political stability in the country, rather than to strengthen its defence potential. Belarus does not regard the threat of military conflict with NATO countries as likely.
Polish media have raised the issue of a nuclear attack on Warsaw by Russia several times. In 2009, Wprost, a Polish weekly, reported about the joint Russo-Belarusian military exercises ‘West 2009’ and training on the attack on Poland and training on the use of nuclear weapons. In 2009 Russian strategic bombers Tu -160 and Tu- 95MS took part in the military exercises, which led to such conclusions.
In 2008 Poland and USA signed a military cooperation agreement on anti-missile defence systems. Back then, Russian military official Nogovitsyn said ‘the USA cares for its own anti-missile defence, not Poland’s. Poland, by placing anti-missile defence systems, jeopardizes herself. Such targets are always a priority for destruction’,
Simultaneously, the increasing (apparent or real) threat from the East helps to attract the attention of the NATO leadership to Eastern Europe and Baltic states. In November 2013 Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will carry out Steadfast Jazz 2013 NATO military exercise in the Baltic Sea – for the first time since 1993. NATO started planning the exercise in 2009.
Thus, the joint Russo-Belarusian military exercises and, more importantly, the rumours about ‘a nuclear attack on Warsaw’ training have become the basis for stronger presence of NATO in the region. It is a good chance for the Belarusian president to strengthen his position in the Kremlin by using anti-Western rhetoric.
President Lukashenka continues to rotate staff and rejuvenate heads of departments and universities following new appointments in regional administrations. Apparently, new Information Minister Karliukevich could somewhat relax the state policy towards the independent media and introduce technological solutions for retaining control over Belarus’ information space. New rectors could strengthen the trend for soft Belarusization in the regions and tighten the disciplinary and ideological control over the student movement in the capital.
President Lukashenka has appointed new ministers of culture and information, the new rector of the Belarusian State University and heads of three universities, assistants in the Minsk and Vitebsk regions.
The new Information Minister Karliukevich is likely to avoid controversial initiatives similar to those former Minister Ananich was famous for, however, certainly within his capacities. Nevertheless, the appointment of Belarusian-speaking writer Karliukevich could be regarded as the state’s cautious attempt to relax environment in the media field and ensure the sovereignty of national media.
The Belarusian leadership has consolidated the trend for mild Belarusization by appointing a young historian and a ‘reasonable nationalist’, Duk as the rector at the Kuleshov State University in Mogilev. Meanwhile, while choosing the head of the Belarusian State University, the president apparently had in mind the strengthening of the ideological loyalty among the teaching staff and students at the main university in order to keep the youth movement at bay. Previously, Korol was the rector of the Kupala State University in Grodno, where he held purges among the disloyal teaching staff.
The trend for the renewal of mid-ranking executives and their rejuvenation has confirmed. The age of the Culture Minister and three new rectors varies from 39 to 44 years old.