‘West 2013’ military exercise: nuclear threat myth plays into hands of few
The joint strategic military exercise ‘West 2013’ was held in Belarus and Russia on September 20th – 26th, 2013. According to media reports, during a training exercise near the Polish border, Belarus and Russia worked on the scenario of a preventive nuclear attack on Warsaw.
Rumours about ‘a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Warsaw’ training, are advantageous for those who are interested in strengthening NATO presence in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic. For Belarus, increased NATO presence in the region might mean that Lukashenko’s importance grows in the eyes of Russia.
Initially, information about Russo-Belarusian military exercises and ‘a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Warsaw’ training was published in Polska, a Polish newspaper, in April 2013 with reference to unofficial sources. Later on, it was reprinted by other Western media. The Belarusian government sources refuted the message immediately.
In February 2013 The Washington Times published an article about nuclear military exercises in Russia, citing officials from the Pentagon and the European Command of U.S. forces. The sources said Russia held large-scale exercises on the transportation of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons closer to Europe.
Simultaneously, in February 2013, President Lukashenko approved a plan for the Russo-Belarusian military exercise ‘West 2013’. He emphasized the need to include territorial defence forces in the training. The incumbent president has a priority to maintain domestic political stability in the country, rather than to strengthen its defence potential. Belarus does not regard the threat of military conflict with NATO countries as likely.
Polish media have raised the issue of a nuclear attack on Warsaw by Russia several times. In 2009, Wprost, a Polish weekly, reported about the joint Russo-Belarusian military exercises ‘West 2009’ and training on the attack on Poland and training on the use of nuclear weapons. In 2009 Russian strategic bombers Tu -160 and Tu- 95MS took part in the military exercises, which led to such conclusions.
In 2008 Poland and USA signed a military cooperation agreement on anti-missile defence systems. Back then, Russian military official Nogovitsyn said ‘the USA cares for its own anti-missile defence, not Poland’s. Poland, by placing anti-missile defence systems, jeopardizes herself. Such targets are always a priority for destruction’,
Simultaneously, the increasing (apparent or real) threat from the East helps to attract the attention of the NATO leadership to Eastern Europe and Baltic states. In November 2013 Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will carry out Steadfast Jazz 2013 NATO military exercise in the Baltic Sea – for the first time since 1993. NATO started planning the exercise in 2009.
Thus, the joint Russo-Belarusian military exercises and, more importantly, the rumours about ‘a nuclear attack on Warsaw’ training have become the basis for stronger presence of NATO in the region. It is a good chance for the Belarusian president to strengthen his position in the Kremlin by using anti-Western rhetoric.
The rapid increase in wages has led to a decline in the ratio between labour productivity and real wages to one. Previously, the rule was that enterprises, in which the state owned more than 50% of shares in the founding capital, were not allowed increasing salaries if this ratio was equal to or less than one. The authorities are unlikely to be able to meet the wage growth requirement without long-term consequences for the economy. Hence, the government is likely to contain wage growth for the sake of economic growth.
According to Belstat, In January – August 2017, GDP growth was 1.6%. The economic revival has led to an increase in wages. In August, the average monthly wage was BYN 844.4 or USD 435, i.e. grew by 6.6% since early 2017, adjusted for inflation. This has reduced the ratio between labour productivity and real wages from 1.03 in January 2017 to 1 in the first seven months of 2017. This parameter should not be less than 1, otherwise, the economy starts accumulating imbalances.
The need for faster growth in labour productivity over wage growth was stated in Decree No 744 of July 31st, 2014. The decree enabled wages growth at state organizations and organizations with more than 50% of state-owned shares only if the ratio between growth in labour productivity and wages was higher than 1. Taking into account the state's share in the economy, this rule has had impact on most of the country's key enterprises. In 2013 -2014 wages grew rapidly, which resulted in devaluation in 2014-2015.
Faster wage growth as compared with growth in labour productivity carries a number of risks. Enterprises increase cost of wages, which subsequently leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of products on the domestic and foreign markets. In construction, wholesale, retail trade, and some other industries the growth rate of prime cost in 2017 outpaces the dynamics of revenue growth. This is likely to lead to a decrease in profits and a decrease in investments for further development. Amid wage growth, the population is likely to increase import consumption and reduce currency sales, which would reduce the National Bank's ability to repay foreign and domestic liabilities.
The Belarusian government is facing a dilemma – either to comply with the president’s requirement of a BYN 1000 monthly wage, which could lead to new economic imbalances and could further affect the national currency value, or to suspend the wage growth in order to retain the achieved economic results. That said, the first option bears a greater number of negative consequences for the nomenclature.
Overall, the rapid growth in wages no longer corresponds the pace of economic development. The government is likely to retain the economic growth and retrain further growth in wages. Staff reshuffles are unlikely to follow the failure to meet the wage growth requirement.