Viktor Lukashenko gains influence in Belarus and abroad
On 18 July a government Resolution No 934 was adopted, empowering the Intelligence Analysis Centre under the auspices of the President of Belarus with the right to approve investment projects in the field of information technology,
financed via public funds and loans of Belarusian banks, with the overall cost exceeding USD 1 million.
Security forces in the circles of the oldest son of President Lukashenko, Viktor, have been consistently concentrating instruments of control over the financial flows within Belarus and abroad in their hands. This should have provided Viktor Lukashenko with enough influence to enter into public policy space, directly or indirectly.
The resolution de jure established the right of the IAC to examine projects in the IT field. However experts of the Center were also involved in the assessment of many other investment projects, such as “Belaruskaly”. Therefore, the decision of the Government should be regarded as a step towards formalizing of de facto informal control of financial flows within Belarus by the IAC and its curator Viktor Lukashenko.
Moreover, Viktor Lukashenko has consistently sought to take over control of the activities of Belarusian companies abroad via the State Control Committee. On 11-15 July in Yerevan, the Head of the Directorate for Coordination and International Cooperation of the Financial Monitoring Department of the SCC Prosvirov attended a meeting of the Egmont Group, which unites Financial Intelligence Units of 127 countries.
Mr. Prosvirov was appointed to this position in 2011 simultaneously with the Director of the IAC Vakulchik. During the meeting in Yerevan Belarus has signed an agreement on cooperation in combating money laundering and financing of terrorism with the Financial Intelligence Unit of Saudi Arabia.
Financial compromising has always been a valuable political asset, which has become a particularly important pillar in the political career of President Lukashenko. Accumulating levers of financial control in his hands would enable Viktor Lukashenko to increase his influence inside Belarus, as well as to acquire additional political weight in the single economic space in January 2012
The country's leadership has instructed the local authorities to raise minimum wages at enterprises by the end of 2019 to BYN 1,000, which would lead to an increase in the average wage in the economy as a whole to BYN 1 500. The pace of wage growth in 2017 is insufficient to ensure payroll at BYN 1000 by late 2017 without manipulating statistical indicators. In order to fulfil the president’s order, the government would have to increase budgetary expenditures on wages in healthcare and education, enterprises – to carry out further layoffs and expand the practice of taking loans to pay wages and restrict investment in modernisation of fixed assets. In 2010, the artificial increase in wages led to a threefold devaluation in 2011, an increase in the average salary to BYN 1500 will not match the capabilities of the economy and would lead to yet another devaluation.