Summer season will calm down Belarusian protest movements
On April 26th, the authorities allowed the Chernobyl Path, the annual demonstration, to be held in Minsk.
The small number of the demonstration participants demonstrates that the opposition’s political message as well as the environmentalists’ message advocating against the NPP construction enjoy little popularity among Belarusians. The summer holiday season, which is about to start, will make it even more difficult to gather people for street protests in the coming six months.
The Chernobyl Path demonstration, which conventionally included a march through the city and a meeting, advocated against the started construction of a nuclear power plant in Ostrovets. Independent media reported about 600 participants in the demonstration and about 200 in the meeting.
The Chernobyl Path did not attract many participants, - even less than the Freedom Day rally on March 24th – which could be explained by the starting holiday season. This factor, combined with others, such as people’s low motivation to participate in mass protests, and the opposition’s low popularity, imply that political activity in Spring-Autumn 2013 will be low.
During this period, the opposition, as well as near-political activists (environmentalists) will face difficulties in organizing street protests due to these objective reasons, even without the authorities’ interventions. In turn, the authorities if necessary can use the administrative tool to reduce the protest activity.
In particular, before the demonstration started on April 26th, the police arrested several environmentalists, thereby preventing them from taking part in the rally. After the event, several journalists, working for the independent media outlets, were briefly detained. United Civil Party Chairman Anatoly Liabedzka was detained in Ostrovets, when he was trying to enter the NPP construction site.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.