Strategic split within the Belarusian opposition into political and civic campaigns
On May 7, the court sentenced the deputy head of Tell the Truth! campaign Andrei Dzmitryeu and a member of the board Mikhail Pashkevich to 10 days in custody. On May 11, at the press- conference a co-chairman of the Belarusian Christian Democracy Party Vital Rymasheuski, “European Belarus” coordinator Alyaksandr Atroshchankau, a co-chairman of the organising committee for creation of the Belaruski Rukh (Belarusian Movement) party Viktar Ivashkevich, made a joint statement on boycotting the upcoming parliamentary elections.
The arrest of two activists of the civil campaign Tell the Truth! is not linked to their political pre-election activity. The measures taken by the state are more likely to be connected to the public projects of Tell the Truth!, such as a protest against the construction of the Chinese technological park in the Smolevichi district as well as the “Civil agreement” campaign (deals with solving social and everyday problems on citizens’ appeals)
All these projects go far beyond the traditional patterns of behavior within the opposition forces, in particular, on the format of participation in the upcoming parliamentary elections. As a result, civil society activists greatly expand their field of activity by addressing social issues (e.g., control over the privatisation, protection of property and civil rights of citizens, etc.). At the same time, by extending their activity beyond the election campaign, they prolong their political life.
Thus, on April 30, the leader of the civil campaign \"Tell the Truth!\" Uladzimir Nyaklyaeu said that the campaign has a long-term goal for 2015-2016. However, it should be mentioned that none of the conventional opposition movements declare such long-term perspectives.
More radical political actors “Belarusian Christian Democracy,\" \"European Belarus\" and \"Belaruski rukh\" (Belarusian Movement) stick to short-term tactics of boycotting the upcoming elections. Other well-known opposition parties such as “Just World\" and the United Civil Party act in a similar manner. Although they both have the opposite attitude to boycotting the elections, neither of them has declared any clear post-election strategy.
Thus, it could be said that the parliamentary election of 2012 will play a crucial role in splitting the Belarusian opposition into two major groups of strategic and tactical actors. The former ones are registered and unregistered parties and movements (the UCP party “A Just World”, \"Belarusian Christian Democracy,\" \"European Belarus\", \"Belaruski rukh\", etc.) The latter include new civic campaigns that do not limit their activity to participation in the elections and seek to implement long-term strategies of civic engagement (\"Tell the Truth!\", the \"For Freedom\" Movement).
The rapid increase in wages has led to a decline in the ratio between labour productivity and real wages to one. Previously, the rule was that enterprises, in which the state owned more than 50% of shares in the founding capital, were not allowed increasing salaries if this ratio was equal to or less than one. The authorities are unlikely to be able to meet the wage growth requirement without long-term consequences for the economy. Hence, the government is likely to contain wage growth for the sake of economic growth.
According to Belstat, In January – August 2017, GDP growth was 1.6%. The economic revival has led to an increase in wages. In August, the average monthly wage was BYN 844.4 or USD 435, i.e. grew by 6.6% since early 2017, adjusted for inflation. This has reduced the ratio between labour productivity and real wages from 1.03 in January 2017 to 1 in the first seven months of 2017. This parameter should not be less than 1, otherwise, the economy starts accumulating imbalances.
The need for faster growth in labour productivity over wage growth was stated in Decree No 744 of July 31st, 2014. The decree enabled wages growth at state organizations and organizations with more than 50% of state-owned shares only if the ratio between growth in labour productivity and wages was higher than 1. Taking into account the state's share in the economy, this rule has had impact on most of the country's key enterprises. In 2013 -2014 wages grew rapidly, which resulted in devaluation in 2014-2015.
Faster wage growth as compared with growth in labour productivity carries a number of risks. Enterprises increase cost of wages, which subsequently leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of products on the domestic and foreign markets. In construction, wholesale, retail trade, and some other industries the growth rate of prime cost in 2017 outpaces the dynamics of revenue growth. This is likely to lead to a decrease in profits and a decrease in investments for further development. Amid wage growth, the population is likely to increase import consumption and reduce currency sales, which would reduce the National Bank's ability to repay foreign and domestic liabilities.
The Belarusian government is facing a dilemma – either to comply with the president’s requirement of a BYN 1000 monthly wage, which could lead to new economic imbalances and could further affect the national currency value, or to suspend the wage growth in order to retain the achieved economic results. That said, the first option bears a greater number of negative consequences for the nomenclature.
Overall, the rapid growth in wages no longer corresponds the pace of economic development. The government is likely to retain the economic growth and retrain further growth in wages. Staff reshuffles are unlikely to follow the failure to meet the wage growth requirement.