Staff reform of the Interior Ministry
Appointment of an ex-KGB official as Deputy Interior Minister should be regarded as strengthening of the power elites close to Viktor Lukashenko, the eldest son of Belarusian President. It is anticipated that Mr. Shunevich will take over the office of Interior Minister Kuleshov shortly.
On 17 January the President appointed the former Head of the Anti-Corruption and Organized Crime Department of the KGB Mr. Shunevich as First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs - Chief of the Criminal Police.
The statement of Lukashenko, which he made while appointing the new Deputy Minister of Interior and the situation inside the Ministry itself, implies there is a high degree of probability of the imminent resignation of the current Minister Kuleshov. According to Alexander Lukashenko, Deputy Shunevich should focus more on “serious work”. During the appointment of Mr. Shunevich, Minister Kuleshov was on a business trip to France.
Kuleshov’s disengagement from the fight for the fate of his closest subordinates implies that his positions in the Ministry are extremely weak. On 16 January in France, the Minister Kuleshov learned about the controversial resignation of his Deputy Oleg Pekarsky, who was fired from the internal affairs for discredit of the rank. In December 2011 another Deputy Minister Mr. Poluden was arrested on corruption charges. At that time Minister Kuleshov was in a hospital and since then he made no comments about the situation in his Ministry.
Appointment of an ex-KGB official as Deputy Interior Minister with a view to become the Minister should be considered as strengthening of the power elites close to Viktor Lukashenko, the eldest son of Belarusian President. Until 2007 Shunevich worked for the MIA however soon after his transfer to the KGB he made a career. Loyalty of Shunevich to the KGB Chairman Zaitsev, who, in turn, is close to Viktor Lukashenko, implies that the Interior Ministry may soon fall under the control of Viktor Lukashenko.
After the reform of the Belarusian law enforcement bodies and the launch of the Investigation Committee, the control over the MIA implies, above all, the opportunity to control the actions of military police units. In political terms, it means that potential street protest actions would be suppressed harshly, but nothing more.
The new balance of powers in Belarus implies the strengthening of the role of Viktor Lukashenko and his environment. However, unlike some media assessed, there are no reasons to talk about the “reign of Viktor”. In today’s Belarus the most “valuable” source of power lies within the Investigation Committee, which has monopolized the right to investigate corruption cases and is controlled by President Lukashenko.
The country's leadership has instructed the local authorities to raise minimum wages at enterprises by the end of 2019 to BYN 1,000, which would lead to an increase in the average wage in the economy as a whole to BYN 1 500. The pace of wage growth in 2017 is insufficient to ensure payroll at BYN 1000 by late 2017 without manipulating statistical indicators. In order to fulfil the president’s order, the government would have to increase budgetary expenditures on wages in healthcare and education, enterprises – to carry out further layoffs and expand the practice of taking loans to pay wages and restrict investment in modernisation of fixed assets. In 2010, the artificial increase in wages led to a threefold devaluation in 2011, an increase in the average salary to BYN 1500 will not match the capabilities of the economy and would lead to yet another devaluation.