“Sannikau factor” reduces probability of election boycott
The news about potential pardon of Sannikau strengthens positions of the opponents of the boycott of the parliamentary elections and gives the opposition involved in negations a reason to postpone the adoption of a unanimous decision about the format of the election campaign. De facto it implies there will be no joint boycott of the 2012 elections.
Taking into account President’s Lukashenko readiness to pardon prisoners if they appeal for clemency, which he repeatedly voiced, increases chances of Sannikau’s release. On 23 January expired the one-month-review period and the appeal was submitted to the Presidential Administration. Indeed, Lukashenko knew about Sannikau’s appeal all along and his demonstrative adherence to formalities while considering his appeal implies only his personal dislike of Sannikau. It also explains the delayed review of the petition within the Administration, moreover, last week President Lukashenko was on a working visit and a vacation in Sochi.
The release of Sannikau will have a dual impact on the negotiations about the format of the opposition’s participation in the parliamentary elections in September.
On the one hand, supporters of explicit boycott of the election campaign may use the release of Sannikau as a factor reinforcing their position, namely, that the authorities are fearful of the boycott and therefore have already made concessions ergo they will continue insisting on boycotting. On the other hand, supporters of participation in the elections will argue that following the release of Sannikau other political prisoners could be released before the autumn.
However, it implies that negotiations within the opposition will continue. In fact, the opposition will refuse to take a principled decision regarding “the boycott or participation” and in reality the choice will be made in favourof participation and against the boycott. On 23 January a number of opposition organizations failed to sign an agreement on the format of the election campaign, regardless of their previous statements about working on such document.
The delay of the principled and joint decision on the format of participation in the parliamentary campaign by the opposition confirms our previous assessment: the majority of the opposition will take part in the elections and will hush up the issue of explicit boycott. The meeting of the so-called “Coalition of the Six” on 23 January was not attended by four heads of the political parties and movements (2 were on business trips abroad, 2 were ill.)
The release of Sannikau, if it takes place, will provide the leadership of the opposition with yet another reason to postpone the adoption of the final decision. For instance, one of the negotiators (Deputy Chairman of the United Civil Party Mr. Lev Margolin) said on January 23 that in the following two months the coalition intended to organize a broad public debate with participation of experts regarding the format of the opposition’s involvement in the elections. He also said that the boycott would not in principle prevent the opposition from the nomination of candidates.
To date, the following (not-registered) organizations have explicitly supported the idea of the boycott: the Organizing Committee of the People’s Assembly, the “Belaruski Rukh” Movement and the Belarusian Christian Democracy. Only one party, Fair World of the “Coalition of the Six” stands for participation in the elections. The remaining organizations have not yet made up their minds and continue consultations.
The country's leadership has instructed the local authorities to raise minimum wages at enterprises by the end of 2019 to BYN 1,000, which would lead to an increase in the average wage in the economy as a whole to BYN 1 500. The pace of wage growth in 2017 is insufficient to ensure payroll at BYN 1000 by late 2017 without manipulating statistical indicators. In order to fulfil the president’s order, the government would have to increase budgetary expenditures on wages in healthcare and education, enterprises – to carry out further layoffs and expand the practice of taking loans to pay wages and restrict investment in modernisation of fixed assets. In 2010, the artificial increase in wages led to a threefold devaluation in 2011, an increase in the average salary to BYN 1500 will not match the capabilities of the economy and would lead to yet another devaluation.