Regaining Trust is Becoming the Main Political Issue for Lukashenko
According to the national survey conducted by IISEPS in December, the presidential electoral rating amounted to 31.5% and did not change much since June 2012. 1,500 respondents aged 18 and older were surveyed, with a sample error not exceeding 3 %.
A stop in the growth of the electoral rating of president Lukashenko reinforces a dangerous trend for the country’s leadership, namely, voters no longer positively respond to how the government fulfill its promises to improve the standards of living of the population. Thus, for the next two years, the main internal political problem for the ruling group will be to regain people’s trust.
IISEPS’ December survey proved the previously noted downward trend of the electoral rating of Alexander Lukashenko against the growth of people’s incomes. Thus, according to official figures, real wages in January-November increased by 20.6% as compared to the same period in 2011 and almost reached the equivalent of USD 500 which had been promised by the president. Despite this, people’s willingness to vote for the acting president in the elections remains at 31%, and ,what is most important, has remained unchanged since the middle of summer 2012, accounting to 29.7% in June and 31.6% in September.
It has been the first time that we have observed such a long-lasting low rating of Lukashenko. During his third term as president from 2006 to 2012, his rating amounted to 40% which allowed the authorities “to buy” the required majority of 50% of the electorate by boosting the economy in the year of elections. Also, it gave electoral commissions an unwritten right to present “the right” results of the election. Therefore, although the ruling group has managed to fulfill their main election promise to increase an average salary to USD 500, it has failed to solve a serious problem, namely, to regain citizens’ trust.
A freeze in Lukashenko’s electoral rating has, as usual, not led to a growth in protest moods among the population and the growth of sympathy to other political actors. On the contrary, the majority of respondents (34.1%) behave conservatively and are reliant on president in their hopes that Belarus will overcome the economic crises, while only 8.6% pin their hopes on the actions of the opposition. If this conservative trend continues, it will most likely lead to a situation where the main problem of the next presidential election in 2015 will be not a "social explosion" in the form of mass protests, but a very low voting turnout , as it was the case during the parliamentary campaign of 2012.
It is probable that the low level of people’s trust in the country’s leadership reflects the situation within the state administration. This, in particular, can be proved by a notorious scandal with a failure of the state program for the modernization of wood-processing industry, a tragic suicide of a KGB officer, as well as information leaks, rumours and provocations. One of the last provocations was about an upcoming devaluation of the Belarusian ruble up to BYR 14 340 for USD 1 starting from January, 8. The information about it was allegedly sent out from the phone number of the National Bank to a few thousand users of Belarusian mobile operators.
In response to these societal challenges, president Lukashenko will have to strengthen the populist rhetoric. In particular, during the New Year’s television address to the nation, Lukashenko first time made his speech with family photos in the background. Previously, and also for the first time, his two sons Victor and Dmitry were shown in New Year TV programs together with their families. Also, at the end of December, for the first time since 2004, a deputies’ group lead by deputy Ivanchenko, a former president’s aide, established in the parliament. The group consists of 21 members and they have already started working visits to the regions.
It should be noted that such populist measures could bring a positive effect only if people’s incomes significantly increase. Therefore, it can be expected that the authorities will not give up the plan of economic growth by +8,5% in 2013 which had been accepted in autumn. They will step up efforts to seek financing abroad.
Over the past year, military-political relations between Minsk and Kyiv have become complicated. Due to their high inertia and peculiarities, this downward trend would be extremely difficult to overcome.
The root cause of the crisis is the absence of a common political agenda in the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Minsk is looking for a market for Belarusian exports in Ukraine and offers its services as a negotiation platform for the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, thereby hoping to avoid political issues in the dialogue with Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for political support from Minsk in the confrontation with Moscow. In addition, Ukraine’s integration with NATO presupposes her common position with the Alliance in relation to Belarus. The NATO leadership regards the Belarusian Armed Forces as an integral part of the Russian military machine in the western strategic front (the Baltic states and Poland). In addition, the ongoing military reform in Ukraine envisages a reduction in the number of generals and the domestic political struggle makes some Ukrainian top military leaders targets in politically motivated attacks.
Hence, the criticism of Belarus coming from Ukrainian military leadership is dictated primarily by internal and external political considerations, as well as by the need to protect the interests of generals, and only then by facts.
For instance, initially, the Ukrainian military leadership made statements about 100,000 Russian servicemen allegedly taking part in the Russo-Belarusian military drill West-2017. Then the exercises were labelled quazi-open and military observers from Ukraine refused to provide their assessment, which caused a negative reaction in Minsk. Further, without citing specific facts, it was stated that Russia was building up its military presence in Belarus.
Apparently, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries have entangled in a confrontational spiral (on the level of rhetoric). Moreover, only a small part of the overly hidden process has been disclosed. That said, third states are very likely to take advantage of the situation (or have already done so). This is not only about Russia.
The Belarusian Defence Ministry officials are restrained in assessing their Ukrainian counterparts. However, such a restraint is not enough. Current military-political relations between Belarus and Ukraine are unlikely to stabilise without the intervention of both presidents.