Pre-election opposition: variety of tactics and some traces of strategy
Country’s leadership sets narrow frameworks for formal and informal actions for the election campaign participants. During the campaign, pro-government and opposition candidates will face tough opposition from the authorities and, in the best case scenario, they will use the campaign to demonstrate their mobilization capacity and ability to create new coalitions.
The key player in the campaign could become a Republican public association (QuaNGO) “Belaya Rus”, which lists about 130 thousand members. Its leadership does not leave attempts to convert the QuaNGO into a political party, and to strengthen its positions, therefore it is important for “Belaya Rus” to show to the country’s leadership its mobilization capacity “in action”: Parliamentary elections provide with such an opportunity. However, it is not likely that Belaya Rus will be converted into a political party, as the emergence of a mass-scale and organized political organization in the country contradicts interests of President Lukashenko.
Meanwhile, the opposition parties and movements are busy reorganizing old and new coalitions, as well as launching initiatives linked with the upcoming campaign. On June 16th, two civil campaigns “Tell the Truth!” and “For Freedom” signed a cooperation agreement within the framework of the National Platform for Civil Society Forum of the Eastern Partnership. Both movements are planning to nominate candidates for the upcoming elections and to observe the voting procedures. In addition, these two organizations have set up an organizing committee to promote Kastus Kalinowski.
A number of opposition parties and movements have announced plans to carry out election monitoring: “For Fair Elections” campaign, which is coordinated by “Fair World” political party and “Public control - for Fair Elections!” campaign (Coordinators - the Belarusian Popular Front Party, the “Green” party and “For Freedom” movement). Finally, on June 21st Belarusian human rights activists launched their election monitoring campaign “Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections”, envisaging to engage over 500 observers.
On the one hand, such an abundance of initiatives related to election observation, coupled with a variety of election participation strategies (boycott, active boycott, conditioned participation, unconditional participation), indicates that internal crisis within the opposition is increasing. On the other hand, this process triggers formations of new opposition movements and coalitions, which set long-term political goals and do not link their activities with the electoral cycle (in particular, “For Freedom” and “Tell the Truth!” movements).
The parliamentary campaign will enable all of these pro-government and opposition players to show their mobilization capabilities. However, one should not expect changes in the political situation before and after the elections.
The established formal and informal frameworks of political activity will be tough for all participants in the election campaign.
For instance, it is likely that the authorities will pay particular attention to the street campaigning by the opposition and the more so bearing in mind the recent legislative changes concerning street rallies. It is also likely that attempts of “Belaya Rus” to transform into a political party will be systematically and informally suppressed by the bureaucratic machine.
According to Decree No. 221 of June 23rd, 2017, deadlines for the completion of foreign trade operations have been extended from 90 to 180 days for exports and from 60 to 90 days for imports. Delayed payments entailed a fine up to 2% of the transaction cost for each day of the delay, but could not exceed the total cost of the transaction. Most companies, when working with new counterparties, require a deferred payment for a period of three to six months. Due to the new regulation, violations are likely to reduce in number, so as the fines. Trade enterprises are likely to expand the assortment list due to the supply of new products in small lots, and the assortment list of exported Belarusian goods could expand, too. The new terms for completing foreign trade transactions would enable medium and small companies on the foreign trade market, exporters and importers are likely to grow in number and the geography of export-import operations could expand.