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Political situation: prognosis for 2015

April 22, 2016 19:04

-       The government will not dare to revise the existing socio-economic model in the year of presidential elections. Instead, it will continue to reduce social guarantees and introduce new mechanisms to recover resources from the population;

-       The authorities will continue to limit socio-political activity, maintaining repression at a high level;

-       The chances of the opposition nominating a “single opposition candidate” for the upcoming elections are lower than ever;

-       Trade wars between Belarus and Russia will continue and, with the crisis developing in the Russian economy, the attractiveness and benefits of the Eurasian Economic Union for Belarus will seriously reduce;  

-       The Kremlin will increase information pressure on the Belarusian leadership;

-       Official Minsk will continue the process of unconditionally regulating relations with western capitals. 

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Minsk attempts to make up for image losses from military exercises by opening to Western values
October 02, 2017 11:49
Image: Catholic.by

The Belarusian authorities regard the Catholic conference as yet another international event to promote Minsk as a global negotiating platform. Minsk’s proposal to organise a meeting between the Roman-Catholic Church and the Russian Orthodox Church is rather an image-making undertaking than a serious intention. However, the authorities could somewhat extend the opportunities for the Roman-Catholic Church in Belarus due to developing contacts with the Catholic world.

Minsk is attempting to lay out a mosaic from various international religious, political and sportive events to shape a positive image of Belarus for promoting the Helsinki 2.0 idea.

Belarus’ invitation to the head of the Holy See for a meeting with the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church should be regarded as a continuation of her foreign policy efforts in shaping Minsk’s peacekeeping image and enhancing Belarus’ international weight. The Belarusian authorities are aware that their initiative is unlikely to find supporters among the leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church in Moscow. In Russia, isolationist sentiments prevail.

In addition, for domestic audiences, the authorities make up for the lack of tangible economic growth with demonstrations of growth in Minsk’s authority at international level through providing a platform for religious, sportive and other dialogues.