Political situation: prognosis for 2015
- The government will not dare to revise the existing socio-economic model in the year of presidential elections. Instead, it will continue to reduce social guarantees and introduce new mechanisms to recover resources from the population;
- The authorities will continue to limit socio-political activity, maintaining repression at a high level;
- The chances of the opposition nominating a “single opposition candidate” for the upcoming elections are lower than ever;
- Trade wars between Belarus and Russia will continue and, with the crisis developing in the Russian economy, the attractiveness and benefits of the Eurasian Economic Union for Belarus will seriously reduce;
- The Kremlin will increase information pressure on the Belarusian leadership;
- Official Minsk will continue the process of unconditionally regulating relations with western capitals.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.