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December 28 – January 3, 2015

Outcomes for 2015, Forecast for 2016

The situation has not changed
Outcomes for 2015, Forecast for 2016

Outcomes for 2015: a deep recession and dim prospects for economic recovery

Forecast for 2016: conservation outguns innovation

Most important trends in 2015

  • Conservation of the socio-economic model
  • Increased demand for systemic transformations in the Belarusian society, especially in the economy
  • People’s expectations of the state’s social protection lowered
  • The state cut social guarantees to the population
  • Some political elite acknowledged recession and the need for reforms
  • The government divided into supporters of market reforms and antireform conservatives
  • Reduced capacity for mobilisation for both, the authorities and the opposition
  • Cautious neutrality in foreign policy
  • Minsk earned a reputation of a peacekeeper
  • Enhanced attention to national security

Main threats in 2016

  • Tensions and protest moods in society will rise due to falling living standards and a cutback on social protection
  • Deeper economic recession due to the lack of political will to reform the existing socio-economic model
  • The Kremlin will step up pressure to deploy a Russian military air base in Belarus in exchange for financial aid and loans
  • Amid dwindling state resources and fewer opportunities to distribute budgetary and export flow of funds, conflicts in nomenclature and state sidekick businesses will mount
  • Minsk and Brussels will exhaust potential for reciprocal concessions in the process of Belarusian-European normalization

Most likely trends for 2016

  • The state will imitate reforms in order to obtain external financing
  • The likelihood of real economic reforms will depend on oil prices’ dynamics
  • The state apparatus will step up the struggle for the redistribution of resources
  • The opposition will reshape before the parliamentary elections
  • Minsk will anchor its peacekeeping reputation and neutrality on the international arena
  • Belarus will evade direct involvement in inter-state conflicts on the Russian side
  • The authorities will abandon practices of supporting employment at any cost
  • Industrial production capacity will continue to reduce
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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