Minsk ponders early presidential elections
Belarus’ crumbling socio-economic situation means that a call for an early presidential election is among the likely scenarios. The decision about the election date will depend on whether Minsk manages to lobby its interests in the Kremlin. Any time soon, President Lukashenko anticipates receiving Moscow’s guarantees of support for the Belarusian economy before the 2015 presidential campaign.
Amid spiralling problems in the Belarusian economy, political analysts have started talking about early presidential elections.
The next presidential election in Belarus should be held by November 20th, 2015, at the latest. As Belarusian legislation does not regulate early elections, the Belarusian authorities may call for an early presidential campaign. In 2006, for example, the presidential elections could have taken place in June, but were held in March – three months before the deadline.
The Belarusian authorities have full control over all the mechanisms necessary to ensure the election results. During the 2014 local elections, electoral commissions demonstrated complete loyalty and ensured the turnout requested by the authorities.
Usually during a presidential campaign, the Belarusian authorities seek to increase presidential approval ratings by raising wages. Despite some recovery in Q1 2014, economic imbalances are growing, and require adjustments, which imply lower incomes. The authorities aspire for additional external financing in order to avoid a major crisis. Today, such assistance may only come from Russia.
However, the Kremlin is not yet ready to pay for Belarus’ entry into the EEC on her own terms. During the Minsk Summit, President Lukashenko failed to reap major concessions from Russia as regards oil duty exemptions, which would imply an additional income of USD 3-4 bln per year. Nevertheless, the Kremlin made some concessions to Minsk, for example, it agreed to supply 2 mln tons of oil to Belarusian refineries in 2014 and to issue a USD 2 bn loan.
External factors seem to favour Belarus’ government. Belarus expects that events in Ukraine will prompt the EU and the USA to revise their attitude towards Belarusian leadership. If President Lukashenko manages to preserve a balanced position in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, he may increase his role in the region as a mediator and induce the EU to soften its stance.
Events in Ukraine have also contributed to strengthening Lukashenko’s rating at home. More and more, Belarusian society favours a strong state which is capable of ensuring political stability in the country. In addition, Belarusian propaganda can always provide updates on the Euromaidan’s negative aspects.
As the Kremlin is focused on promoting its interests in Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities expect less attention from Moscow to internal political processes in Belarus. For example, during the last presidential election campaign in 2010 President Lukashenko’s relations with the Kremlin deteriorated sharply. And being under strong pressure from Moscow, President Alexander Lukashenko was forced to sign documents to establish the Common Economic Space. In the long-term, Belarus’ total dependence on the Kremlin will mean that the costs of post-Soviet integration for Belarus will only rise. .
Therefore, holding early elections in Belarus does not appear to be the main scenario for the Belarusian authorities. President Lukashenko counts on the Kremlin to provide some kind of support for the Belarusian economy for the election period.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.