Minsk not rushing to ratify Eurasian Economic Union treaty
Inasmuch as the Belarusian authorities anticipate strengthening their positions on the international arena, they will deliberately put off the ratification of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) founding treaty. Due to the Kremlin’s actions in relation to Ukraine and its aggressive rhetoric (the so-called “Russian world” ideology), the Kazakh and Belarusian leaders want to make sure they are playing safe. Amid increasing pressure from the West on Russia, Minsk and Astana seek to limit Eurasian integration to economic cooperation only by blocking the expansion of the political agenda.
The Russia’s State Duma has promised to speed up ratification of the EAEC Treaty, expecting that Astana and Minsk will do the same.
On May 29th in Astana, the presidents of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan signed the Eurasian Economic Union founding treaty, which should take effect on January 1st, 2015. Russia insists on all parties ratifying the EEU founding treaty “simultaneously, if possible”.
Currently, only Russia has submitted the ratification bill to the Parliament (in early September). However, there are no doubts that Belarus and Kazakhstan will complete all required procedures before the year-end.
It should be noted that the EEU envisages economic integration only, which is an achievement for Astana and Minsk as the Kremlin also wants closer political integration. The political component was entirely crossed out from the final draft of the Treaty thanks to efforts by Kazakh and Belarusian negotiators. Originally, the treaty also included "non-economic" clauses relating to border control and safety, common citizenship, foreign policy, defence and security, as well as health, education, science and culture.
The parties agreed to develop cooperation in “non-economic” spheres within other post-Soviet integration structures or bilaterally. For example, Secretary of the Belarus-Russia Union State Rapota proposed to introduce a common visa within the Union State (similar to the Schengen visa in the EU). However, Belarus was not keen on this initiative. Belarus’ Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mironchik said that “currently there are no negotiations about this issue”.
Meanwhile, escalating tension in Russo-Ukrainian relations and the Kremlin’s aggressive rhetoric about"protecting the Russian world" have prompted Belarus and Kazakhstan to react. For example, President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that should the Kazakh’s national interests be threatened, Kazakhstan would leave the Eurasian Union.
Minsk seeks to strengthen its international position and to improve relations with the West due to its neutral position in the Russo-Ukrainian crisis and serving as a platform for the settlement negotiations. In addition, Belarus seeks to avoid undue attention to her participation in the EEU amid increasing sanctions pressure from the West on Russia.
Belarus is unlikely to submit the EEU treaty ratification bill to Parliament before late autumn.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.