On May Day social activity was acceptable for the authorities
On May 1st, the International Labour Day, rallies and demonstrations were held in several Belarusian cities.
Traditional May Day demonstrations allowed the authorities to assess the social protests meter and to test mobilization capabilities of the state and the opposition. May Day has demonstrated that protest activity is manageable and not threatening the authorities.
The largest May Day demonstration took place in the Minsk centre and was organized by the ‘official’ Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus. Independent media reported that about 10 thousand people took part in the demonstration (according to the FTUB - 30 thousand). The participants of the demonstration expressed support to President Lukashenko’s social policies, demanded from the Myasnkovich’s Government to protect the interests of labor collectives during the privatization of enterprises, backed the Eurasian integration and called for the removal of all restrictions in relations between Belarus and the EU.
The most important about the event was not what the protestors demanded, but the demonstration of the FTUB mobilization capabilities to organize a mass event in the capital. FTUB uses the administrative resources (transportation, food, entertainment and overall support of the city authorities), to control Belarusian workers’ important tradition of mass recreation. May Day demonstration in Belarus is primarily a celebration, rather than a political rally.
At the same time, the FTUB, which lists about 4 million members, is an important measuring instrument and a valve for social protests in the Belarusian society. Therefore, in the most critical times the FTUB leadership puts forward ‘harsh’ demands towards the government (to raise wages, to respect the worker’s rights, etc). However, these demands are mainly rhetorical, aiming at justifying President Lukashenko’s policies.
The decision of the Brest City authorities, granting a permission to the opposition Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada) to hold a May Day demonstration, was rather unexpected. About 200 people took part in the demonstration, representing various opposition parties and movements. There were no detentions during the event. Most likely, the authorities allowed the demonstration to test oppositions’ mobilization capabilities in the region and the protest potential of the local population.
The May Day demonstration has empirically confirmed the independent sociologists’ assessments of the low protest potential of the population. Simultaneously, the Labour Day has allowed the authorities to shift the attention from the President to the Myasnikovich’s Government, claiming his responsibility for the social policy failures. If social problems deteriorate, the president will sacrifice the government.
Nevertheless, shifting responsibility will not solve the ruling group’s main problem – where to find the sources for long term financing of the current social model. The authorities do not seem to have a long-term strategy; they act tactically, addressing socio-economic problems as they occur.
President Lukashenka continues to rotate staff and rejuvenate heads of departments and universities following new appointments in regional administrations. Apparently, new Information Minister Karliukevich could somewhat relax the state policy towards the independent media and introduce technological solutions for retaining control over Belarus’ information space. New rectors could strengthen the trend for soft Belarusization in the regions and tighten the disciplinary and ideological control over the student movement in the capital.
President Lukashenka has appointed new ministers of culture and information, the new rector of the Belarusian State University and heads of three universities, assistants in the Minsk and Vitebsk regions.
The new Information Minister Karliukevich is likely to avoid controversial initiatives similar to those former Minister Ananich was famous for, however, certainly within his capacities. Nevertheless, the appointment of Belarusian-speaking writer Karliukevich could be regarded as the state’s cautious attempt to relax environment in the media field and ensure the sovereignty of national media.
The Belarusian leadership has consolidated the trend for mild Belarusization by appointing a young historian and a ‘reasonable nationalist’, Duk as the rector at the Kuleshov State University in Mogilev. Meanwhile, while choosing the head of the Belarusian State University, the president apparently had in mind the strengthening of the ideological loyalty among the teaching staff and students at the main university in order to keep the youth movement at bay. Previously, Korol was the rector of the Kupala State University in Grodno, where he held purges among the disloyal teaching staff.
The trend for the renewal of mid-ranking executives and their rejuvenation has confirmed. The age of the Culture Minister and three new rectors varies from 39 to 44 years old.