Lukashenkos election platform: do not freak out during crisis

April 22, 2016 19:05

During his time-consuming press conference, President Lukashenko sought to portray himself as a strong leader who controlled the political situation and was the sole guarantor of the political stability in the country. The president underscored the permanence of his position on the key issues - supporting the existing socioeconomic model, pursuing the Eurasian integration, normalizing relations with the European Union, adhering to the balanced position towards Ukraine, and preserving both, the political regime and the harsh environment for the political opposition. 

On January 29th, President Lukashenko held a press conference for Belarusian and international media. The press conference set a new record – it lasted seven hours. The state-run media noted that the event was framed as an „open dialogue with the media‟. However, Lukashenko’s speech did not contain any new ideas, which could signal changes in Belarus’ socio-economic and political regime. The president believes, he can only retain his power if the current socioeconomic model is preserved. Such a model enables him to react to crippling recession with administrative measures. Since a while ago, independent social scientists have been noting the demand for changes in the Belarusian society and the Belarusian authorities are well aware of this. Nevertheless, president Lukashenko assured there were no plans to change the socioeconomic model despite society’s wishes: “I will not change it as long as I am the president. We have found this path, and we have to follow it and not freak out, especially during a crisis”. 

Simultaneously, the authorities continue to review their social contract with the population, albeit not willing to carry out structural economic reforms. The president has once again reiterated that one should not wait for a pay rise. He also spoke against so-called ‘social parasites’: “Everyone should work for the state‟s benefit”. The authorities do not offer any improvements to the people’s well-being however suggest leaning on a strong leader amid security threats in the region. While speaking at the press conference, Lukashenko touched upon the events in Ukraine numerous times and underscored that such events would be impossible in Belarus under his rule. The president also spoke about the Eurasian integration, which seemed less attractive amid recession in Russia and Russo-Belarusian ‘trade wars’. Lukashenko underscored, “Belarus might leave the Eurasian Economic Union should the agreements are not adhered to”. However, it is hard to believe that the Belarusian authorities are seriously thinking about quitting the Union. Most likely, this phrase was designed to strengthen Belarus’ positions in case of another spiral of tension with the Kremlin. 

President Lukashenko assured that he wanted to normalise the relations with the West. However, official Minsk was not ready to take even symbolic steps and to fulfill the only requirement by the West – to release remaining political prisoners. The president is unlikely to change his attitude towards his political opponents and is not willing to enter a dialogue with society. For example, during the 2009 thaw in Belarus-EU relations, and Advisory Council was set up under the Presidential Administration auspices. The Council included economists, media chief editors, heads of business associations, and some opposition members. Recently, the president spoke against any advisory boards: “We will not create any boards, especially political boards”. 

All in all, the authorities aim at preserving the existing political and socioeconomic model and will respond to crisis manifestations with ad hoc administrative measures. 

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The Belarusian authorities have launched a discussion on the moratorium or abolition of the death penalty under the pressure of Belarusian human rights activists and international community. Apparently, the authorities are interested in monitoring public sentiments and response to the possible abolition of the capital punishment. The introduction of a moratorium on the death penalty would depend on the dynamics in Belarusian-European relations, efforts of the civil society organisations and Western capitals.

In Grodno last week, the possibility of abolishing the death penalty in Belarus or introducing a moratorium was discussed.

The Belarusian authorities are likely to continue to support the death penalty in Belarus. During his rule, President Lukashenka pardoned only one person, and courts sentenced to death more than 400 people since the early 1990s. Over the past year, Belarusian courts sentenced to death several persons and one person was executed.

There are no recent independent polls about people’s attitude about the death penalty in Belarus. Apparently, this issue is not a priority for the population. In many ways, public opinion about the abolition of the death penalty would depend on the tone of the state-owned media reports.

That said, the Belarusian Orthodox Church and the Roman-Catholic Church stand for the abolition of the capital punishment, however their efforts in this regard only limit to public statements about their stance. Simultaneously, the authorities could have influenced public opinion about the death penalty through a focused media campaign in the state media. As they did, for example, with the nuclear power plant construction in Astravets. Initially unpopular project of the NPP construction was broadly promoted in the state media, and eventually, according to independent pollsters, was accepted by most population.