Lukashenko offers to release political prisoners to resume a dialogue with the West
At a press conference for the Belarusian national and regional media on 17 June President Lukashenko declared his readiness to release political prisoners, provided the amnesty procedures were observed.
Belarusian President proposed to the West to bargain for “political prisoners in exchange for the resumption of relations”. First of all, Lukashenko is prepared to restore a dialogue with Poland by mentioning the leading role of Poland in the Eastern Europe.
Bearing in mind it is the second proposal of Lukashenko in the course of the past two weeks (reference to the meeting of judges on 3 June) the Belarusian leadership is doing its best to avoid economic reforms. The main recipients of these statements are member states of the IMF, its mission worked in Minsk on 1-13 June.
Given the lack of positive result of the IMF mission and that the conditions put forward for Belarus are not feasible and detrimental to the “created” welfare state and to the popularity of the President, the Belarusian authorities are trying to get away from implementing economic reforms and try to resolve the crisis with “small blood”: by releasing political prisoners. This option suits Minsk perfectly it has been tested in the summer of 2008, when a former Presidential candidate Alexander Kozulin and other political prisoners were released.
President Lukashenka has met with the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, who visited Minsk and the Minsk Automobile Plant. Minsk has always sought to have independent links with Russian regional elites, partially, to compensate for the Kremlin's diminishing interest in Belarus. In recent years, Belarus’ contacts with the Russian regions have been extremely intense. However, with some leaders of Russian regions, primarily heads of large republics, communication was more difficult to build. As many analysts in Minsk suggested, Minsk could regard contacts between President Lukashenka and the head of Chechnya as an additional communication channel for relieving tension in relations with the Kremlin. However, most likely, a trusting relationship with Kadyrov is a value for Minsk as such, provided Kadyrov’s broad business and political interests, and a high degree of autonomy for the Chechen leader from the Kremlin.