In an economic bind, authorities search for new ideology
Belarus needs to create a new motto. This opinion was expressed at a Belaya Rus seminar by Alexander Radkov, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration and Chairman of quango Belaya Rus.
Ahead of the 2015 presidential election, the authorities need to review the state ideology to ensure the electorate’s loyalty. Due to the socio-economic crisis and shrinking ‘welfare state’, the previous ideology has stopped working. Alexander Lukashenko attempts to exploit his ‘father of the nation’ image with an emphasis on traditional conservative values.
The motto ‘For Belarus!’ first appeared in 2004. In full, this motto was ‘For a strong and prosperous Belarus’ and was widely used during the last two presidential campaigns. It reflected Lukashenko’s vision of Belarus’ development and clearly laid out domestic policy priorities: a strong social policy and significant wage growth.
However, since 2011, Belarus’ socio-economic model has been in crisis. The strong ‘welfare state’ has shrunk and lacks resources to continue previous populist policies in the short and medium term. Simultaneously, Lukashenko’s electoral rating has stopped depending on wage growth. Moreover, a significant wage growth in 2013 has unbalanced Belarus’ economy, and in 2014-2015 the authorities will have no resources to provide for wage growth. While the authorities do not yet quite understand how state ideology should change, they have started to shape up some of its components.
Since the Belarusian authorities have been unable to provide ‘living standards like in Europe’ as they promised, they have decided to use other stimuli. For instance, Alexander Radkov at a seminar for ‘Belaya Rus’ members said that ‘Belarus, situated in the heart of Europe, should preserve traditional civilizational values, including Christian’. At a press conference, Lukashenko said that ‘we are observing a gradual destruction of centuries-old moral values, moral anomalies are transforming to a ‘normality’, national, cultural differences between nations are vanishing, and a global English-language neo-culture, based on American standards and values is emerging’.
Alexander Lukashenko has been increasingly exploiting his ‘Father of the nation’ image through various projects. For example, in July 2013 the State Flag Square was finished, and by mid-October 2013 a huge construction project should be completed - a new presidential residence, called the ‘Independence Palace’.
At a meeting with students in Mogilev, Lukashenko talked about a national idea and said that ‘our national idea is peace, harmony, and mutual assistance in our large family, which is called the Belarusian people’. In early October, the president also talked about ‘The Large Family’ social project, one of his possible pre-election initiatives.
To sum up, the authorities are considering changing the current state ideology to one less costly for the state. The new ideology might be used by Lukashenko during the next presidential campaign. The scarcity of resources pre-determines the shift from a ‘consumerist’ society to one with traditional conservative values, ensuring national independence and a better life for future generations.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.