Belarusian opposition steps up struggle for leadership before Parliamentary elections
As the Parliamentary elections draw closer, the competition among the Belarusian opposition leaders for activists to participate in the elections is enhancing. Meanwhile, street protests do not gather many participants, who could support promising candidates. Regardless of the efforts of regional activists, opposition parties are unlikely to join their efforts, since many believe this would strengthen positions of former presidential candidate Nikolai Statkevich.
The Minsk City Executive Committee has rejected the request from ‘Perspektiva’ leader Anatoly Shumchenko and politician Nikoali Statkevich to hold a rally of entrepreneurs on March 14th.
The Parliamentary elections in Belarus should be held no later than September 11th, 2016 and the election campaign will start in June this year. Virtually all political parties with developed regional structures have started preparations for the 2016 parliamentary election campaign.
However, disagreements have emerged even between former allies-supporters of street activity, such as the United Civil Party Leader Anatol Lyabedzka and former political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich. That said, Nikolai Statkevich is aspiring to lead the protest movement and unite the irreconcilable opponents of the incumbent president and supporters of street activity. He has repeatedly stated his ambition to lead the opposition movement and emphasised that he was the president’s main rival.
After his release from prison in August 2015, on a wave of popularity, Statkevich came up with an idea to unite all the opposition and hold the Congress of Democratic Forces with broad representation. However, right from the start, he would deny former communists of the ‘Fair World’ party and representatives from the ‘Tell the Truth!’ campaign with former presidential candidate Tatsiana Karatkevich the right to participate in the Congress.
Meanwhile, the Congress initiators have not yet outlined a clear and precise purpose of the event, only made broad statements about the need to unite the opposition forces. Nevertheless, Nikolai Statkevich is actively promoting the idea among activists, and, eagerly participates in events organised by other opposition parties.
Interestingly, Statkevich’s idea is quite popular among regional activists of opposition parties, who conventionally sympathise the idea of joining forces to fight the "regime".
Meanwhile, Statkevich’s attempt to organise a well-represented oppositional event has caused tension in relations with other opposition leaders. They regard this initiative of former political prisoner as a threat to their human capacity and fear of activists outflow to a new opposition movement lead by Statkevich.
Indeed, the Congress’ Organizing Committee has already demonstrated an aspiration for a place in the opposition line-up of forces. For instance, Congress initiators have decided to join ‘The Right of Choice’ coalition party observation as an independent partner. On February 28th, Statkevich held a founding meeting of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Narodnaya Gramada), which on the one hand enabled him to participate in the Congress on par with other political parties’ leaders, but on the other hand lowered his claims, so as until then he had never been on ‘equal terms’ with other leaders.
In addition to contradictions between the parties, the crisis has penetrated parties per se. For example, the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hramada) (the only of thee social democratic parties with similar names, which has preserved regional structures and activists), which nominated former rector of the Belarusian State University Alexander Kozulin as presidential candidate in 2006, is preparing for a founding meeting and election of the party leader. There are two main competitors for this post are current chairwoman Veshtard and ‘Tell the Truth!’ activist Maslovsky, who make public recriminations and conspiracy allegations.
Overall, in the coming months, rivalry between the opposition leaders over activists is likely to step up. This may lead to conflicts and recriminations, however, parties are likely to attempt to nominate the maximum number of candidates for parliament.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.