Belarusian opposition is likely to use opened window of opportunity
The Belarusian authorities have allowed the opposition in the parliament in anticipation that it would strengthen conflicts in the democratic camp. Meanwhile, by participating in the parliamentary elections the opposition has more chances to use the window of opportunity which has opened.
Under pressure from the opposition, the international community, the economic recession and threats from Russia to Belarus’ independence, for the first time in 12 years the Belarusian authorities allowed the opposition in the parliament, while preserving non-transparent vote count and voter registration and restrictions on campaigning. The authorities count on that stronger opposition is likely to start new internal conflicts and split-ups. Indeed, some members of the United Civil Party sharply criticized the party leadership for agreeing to the parliamentary mandate of Anna Kanopatskaya on unfair terms. Yet there are quite a few dissenting voices in social networks, the UCP partners in the centre-right coalition have not publicly expressed their agreement with the UCP decision (UCP leader Anatol Lyabedzka said that the decision was coordinated with the coalition partners). Criticism is caused primarily by the fact that for two years in a row the UCP was building its political capital on persistently condemning Tell the Truth campaign for the readiness to cooperate with the authorities – both, for participating in the "electoral performance" and for a hypothetical will to accept the parliamentary mandate from the government.
Simultaneously, a new generation in political parties, co-opted and/or introduced to the political scene in the parliamentary elections, is mostly in favour of the tactics of participation in the elections even on the authorities’ terms and supported the UCP decision to accept the mandate of Kanopatskaya, believing that all means to put pressure on the government are worthy. The UCP decision was supported by Tatiana Karatkevich (almost immediately), by Tell the Truth, by the Belarusian Popular Front leader Yanukevich, and by the Belarusian Social Democratic party (Hramada).
In turn, Anna Kanopatskaya and the UCP leadership outlined their plan to use the parliamentary platform, including, first of all, disclosing election fraud. Since the constituency of Kanopatskaya was not observed by the UCP but by Tell the Truth, the latter said they have passed all observation documents to the democratic candidate.
The overall impression of the moods in the democratic camp is that regardless of whether the opposition will be able to use the window of opportunity, opposition candidates and the opposition in general feel inspired by participation in the elections (especially new activists) and will seek additional pressure opportunities on the authorities.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.