Belarusian opposition declares consolidation
On 29 June in Minsk representatives of six opposition parties and democratic movements have signed an agreement on conditions of participation in the upcoming Parliamentary elections.
They have put forward demands to the authorities: to release political prisoners and guarantee free elections. The agreement was signed by the leaders of UCP, BChD, BPF, “Fair World” party, “For Freedom” movement and “Tell the Truth!” civil campaign.
On the one hand, the Belarusian opposition demonstrates consistency in the coordination of their positions and step by step approach to forming a consolidated view on key policy issues: resolution of political crisis after 19 December and the Parliamentary elections of 2012. The most topical issues include the release of political prisoners and a likely boycott of the Parliamentary elections, depending on the reaction of the authorities.
However, this event should be regarded as tactical rather than strategic step. Regardless of the obvious progress in the rapprochement of positions, representatives of political parties and movements emphasize that the signed document is an agreement, not an action programme. Also a joint statement by the leaders of political parties and movements should not be considered as establishment of a new coalition.
Therefore the agreement has no “added value” in political sense and represents yet another formal document, repeatedly voicing usual claims to the Belarusian authorities. The more so, one of the signatories of the agreement, the leader of the “Fair World” Party Mr. Kalyakin talked previously at the party congress about the Party’s participation in the Parliamentary elections on condition of democratization of the electoral system.
In the first place, the agreement is not addressed to the authorities, rather to other democratic partners and represents a „trial balloon”. Its main objective is to test the grounds for potential future coalitions. At the same time, optional and tactical nature of the agreement provides a strong reason to doubt that it will be signed by new parties.
President Lukashenka has met with the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, who visited Minsk and the Minsk Automobile Plant. Minsk has always sought to have independent links with Russian regional elites, partially, to compensate for the Kremlin's diminishing interest in Belarus. In recent years, Belarus’ contacts with the Russian regions have been extremely intense. However, with some leaders of Russian regions, primarily heads of large republics, communication was more difficult to build. As many analysts in Minsk suggested, Minsk could regard contacts between President Lukashenka and the head of Chechnya as an additional communication channel for relieving tension in relations with the Kremlin. However, most likely, a trusting relationship with Kadyrov is a value for Minsk as such, provided Kadyrov’s broad business and political interests, and a high degree of autonomy for the Chechen leader from the Kremlin.