Belarusian opposition is attempting to shape public interest in adjustments to political system

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November 28, 2016 9:16
https://news.tut.by/economics/521234.html

Last week, several dozen people held a rally in Minsk on the anniversary of the 1996 referendum. Unlike discussions in the independent media about the referendum in 1996, not many people participated in the oppositional event. In turn, the loyal Liberal Democratic Party proposed to hold a new referendum to adjust the political system in favour of the party system, which would strengthen the nomenclature groups and create the mechanisms of power succession. In autumn 2016, organisers of protest activity repeatedly attempted to mobilize their supporters to participate in street actions, but to no avail, there were few participants in their events. The Belarusian authorities continue to apply financial pressure on the opposition through high penalties for the most active participants and have not used force in counteracting unauthorized activity. Such financial approach to curb the protest activity has proved efficient. Meanwhile, the population demonstrates political apathy and indifference to the appeals by the opposition to join protest activity with political slogans.

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Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries entangle in confrontation spiral
October 02, 2017 11:57
Фото: RFRM

Over the past year, military-political relations between Minsk and Kyiv have become complicated. Due to their high inertia and peculiarities, this downward trend would be extremely difficult to overcome.

The root cause of the crisis is the absence of a common political agenda in the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Minsk is looking for a market for Belarusian exports in Ukraine and offers its services as a negotiation platform for the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, thereby hoping to avoid political issues in the dialogue with Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for political support from Minsk in the confrontation with Moscow. In addition, Ukraine’s integration with NATO presupposes her common position with the Alliance in relation to Belarus. The NATO leadership regards the Belarusian Armed Forces as an integral part of the Russian military machine in the western strategic front (the Baltic states and Poland). In addition, the ongoing military reform in Ukraine envisages a reduction in the number of generals and the domestic political struggle makes some Ukrainian top military leaders targets in politically motivated attacks.

Hence, the criticism of Belarus coming from Ukrainian military leadership is dictated primarily by internal and external political considerations, as well as by the need to protect the interests of generals, and only then by facts.

For instance, initially, the Ukrainian military leadership made statements about 100,000 Russian servicemen allegedly taking part in the Russo-Belarusian military drill West-2017. Then the exercises were labelled quazi-open and military observers from Ukraine refused to provide their assessment, which caused a negative reaction in Minsk. Further, without citing specific facts, it was stated that Russia was building up its military presence in Belarus.

Apparently, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries have entangled in a confrontational spiral (on the level of rhetoric). Moreover, only a small part of the overly hidden process has been disclosed. That said, third states are very likely to take advantage of the situation (or have already done so). This is not only about Russia.

The Belarusian Defence Ministry officials are restrained in assessing their Ukrainian counterparts. However, such a restraint is not enough. Current military-political relations between Belarus and Ukraine are unlikely to stabilise without the intervention of both presidents.

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