Belarusian authorities have a back out plan for ‘Case of Patriots’
The Belarusian authorities are likely to attempt to maintain an appearance after demonstrating their readiness to tough measures in order to preserve control over the situation in Belarus. That said, they would attempt to doge the recognition of the defendants in the ‘case of patriots’ as political prisoners.
The Belarusian authorities are aware of the foreign policy consequences in the case political prisoners appear in the country. For this reason, some defendants previously arrested within the ‘case of patriots’ have been released. Moreover, they brought additional charges (yet officially not confirmed) in the mass riot case - creating an illegal armed group. The latter is characteristic of extremist activities and creates difficulties for recognising the defendants as political prisoners. Moreover, the guilty verdict on these charges also envisages non-custodial punishment. That said, only non-public figures, who were not involved in public political activity have been left in custody, and all political activists have been released. Apparently, the authorities reckon this would lower the outside interest to the matter.
The Belarusian authorities are unlikely to stop criminal prosecution in the ‘case of patriots’ or render acquittal verdicts, so as they regard both as a manifestation of weakness.
The absence of high-profile public statements from Brussels and Washington following the March wave of repression does not mean that relevant conclusions regarding reliability and negotiability of Minsk have not been made. These conclusions would have far-reaching consequences for both, political cooperation between Belarus and the West, and financial and economic cooperation. The Belarusian authorities are facing the need to relax new tension in relations with the West, while simultaneously, not to allow doubts in their strength and determination.
The Belarusian authorities are likely to attempt to resolve the existing political crisis by punishing the defendants in the ‘case of patriots’ either with suspended or conditional sentences. This would prevent new political prisoners from appearing in Belarus, would help avoiding unfavourable consequences for Belarusian-Western relations, would demonstrate the authorities’ humanism and would ‘save their face’. This perhaps is the best of all bad solutions for the ‘case of patriots’, and the most realistic one, too.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.