Belarusian authorities get a summer break
On June 7th, Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov held a press conference in Minsk.
Ambassador Surikov’s statement will be used as an excuse by the Belarusian authorities to delay the implementation of a new bilateral agreement on privatization. The probability that the oil supply agreement for Q3 will be signed is high, although Belarus is unlikely to get a loan from Russia, because it would be tied to implementation of joint projects.
Ambassador Surikov’s appearance is linked to the activation of the Russo-Belarusian relations and integration processes in the post-Soviet space in the frameworks of the CIS, Collective Security Treaty Organization and the CES in late May - early June. Ambassador’s press conference meant to draw attention to the Kremlin’s priorities in bilateral projects on industrial, financial, and military cooperation with Belarus, as well as to re-define Russia’s requirements.
In particular, Surikov said that in the autumn Belarus and Russia were anticipated to sign agreements to establish a joint holding company, merging MAZ and KamAZ motor works. In addition, Ambassador said that Russia was ready to give a loan to Belarus for enterprises’ modernization only if joint projects were launched. Finally, Surikov reiterated Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu statement about the imminent establishment of Russian military compound in Belarus.
Regarding oil supply to Belarus, Ambassador said that Russia will take Belarus’ wishes into account. This implies that Belarus may count on a quarterly or semi-annual agreement for 23 million tons per year. The agreement should be signed by mid-June 2013. Previous agreements in 2013 were signed quarterly.
Thus, highly likely, the oil supply agreement with Belarus will be signed, and Belarus will be granted a delay at least until autumn regarding its commitment to privatize state property. Surikov’s statements will be used by Belarusian negotiators as additional arguments to justify their position.
Noteworthy, Ambassador Surikov’s views are not always in agreement with the Kremlin. Nevertheless, the moderate nature of Ambassador’s statements, as well as the context of recent integration-related events suggests that Belarus has managed to drag the Kremlin in another negotiation round. Most likely, Belarus is using the deployment of Russian military air base and the customs tariffs’ harmonization terms within the CES as negotiations arguments.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.