Belarusian authorities to boost economy by reducing social protection
The Belarusian authorities have been prompted to initiate a discussion in the Belarusian society about introducing highly unpopular measures in order to relieve tension and to find a compromising solution. The state is aimed at seeking ways to optimize the existing socio-economic model and boost economic development by cutting state social guarantees. Anyway, measures proposed by the states do not envisage structural economic reforms or reduced state control of the economy.
Assistant to the president and PhD in economy Kyrill Rudy published an article in the Belarusian Economic Review, in which he explained why the retirement age should be raised and maternity leave reduced.
The Belarusian authorities launched a major campaign aiming to prepare public opinion for the inevitability of unpopular decisions, such as increasing the retirement age and reducing maternity leave. Statements by some high level officials, including the president indicate that the principled decision has already been made. So the authorities are set to discuss the timing for introducing such measures and suitable compensation mechanisms.
Both, independent and state pollsters have confirmed the extreme unpopularity among the population of the idea of raising the retirement age, which is likely to lead to enhanced protest moods. However, state pollsters from the Sociology Institute at the National Academy of Sciences said that poll results revealed that people "have the understating of the fact that the retirement age will be risen any way".
The authorities lack a comprehensive anti-crisis programme and a roadmap for socio-economic reforms, which results in low support from society. Assistant to the President and PhD in economy Kirill Rudy in his article explained the need for raising the retirement age and shortening maternity leave as probable factors of economic growth in the near future and in the five-year period.
Unpopular initiatives by the authorities to raise the retirement age and reducing maternity leave have caused a debate in the expert community and the opposition, dividing them in their assessments of the authorities’ initiatives.
Some independent media reporters have supported the state in its endeavor to cut social guarantees to the population, seeing it as an element of reforming the existing socio-economic model. However, they think it is unnecessary or even harmful for the authorities to consult with the population, where paternalistic attitudes dominate. Other independent analysts and opposition leaders are critical of the authorities’ unpopular action and hope to raise their ratings with populist rhetoric.
In addition, the government does not have a holistic view of the country’s further development, and demonstrates a desire to maintain the existing socio-economic model in a shortened form. In recent years, the authorities were only reducing social obligations to the population, without liberalization and structural economic reforms.
Currently, the authorities seek to lower tension in society over reduced state’s social guarantees, while preserving the state monopoly in the economy.
It is very likely that the final decision about increasing the retirement age and reducing maternity leave, as well as the amount of state compensation for people’s losses may be adopted within a few months of an "outreach" campaign and after the parliamentary elections.
image - ctv.by
President Lukashenka has met with the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, who visited Minsk and the Minsk Automobile Plant. Minsk has always sought to have independent links with Russian regional elites, partially, to compensate for the Kremlin's diminishing interest in Belarus. In recent years, Belarus’ contacts with the Russian regions have been extremely intense. However, with some leaders of Russian regions, primarily heads of large republics, communication was more difficult to build. As many analysts in Minsk suggested, Minsk could regard contacts between President Lukashenka and the head of Chechnya as an additional communication channel for relieving tension in relations with the Kremlin. However, most likely, a trusting relationship with Kadyrov is a value for Minsk as such, provided Kadyrov’s broad business and political interests, and a high degree of autonomy for the Chechen leader from the Kremlin.