by
January 2 – January 8, 2017

2017: System updates will continue. Main threats.

The situation has not changed

– The conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy, including the squeeze on the Belarusian leadership over visa, economic (privatisation) and currency issues

– The power block may strengthen positions in the Belarusian government, and different nomenclature groups are likely to step up the struggle for administrative rent

– The Belarusian authorities may be tempted to resume populist policies before important political events and inject liquidity to boost household incomes

– Amid falling household incomes and cutbacks in social protection programmes, latent tension in the Belarusian society is likely to grow; spontaneous protests are possible

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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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