2017: System updates will continue. Main threats.
The situation has not changed
– The conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy, including the squeeze on the Belarusian leadership over visa, economic (privatisation) and currency issues
– The power block may strengthen positions in the Belarusian government, and different nomenclature groups are likely to step up the struggle for administrative rent
– The Belarusian authorities may be tempted to resume populist policies before important political events and inject liquidity to boost household incomes
– Amid falling household incomes and cutbacks in social protection programmes, latent tension in the Belarusian society is likely to grow; spontaneous protests are possible
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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Situation in Belarus
March 18 – March 24
Constitutional referendum: main consequences
April 12, 2022
Speakers: Anatoliy Lebedko, Andrei Kazakevich
Video
How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?
March 28, 2022
Speakers: Aleh Hulak, Aleh Aheyeu, Viachaslau Kasinierau
Video
Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia
October 11, 2021
Video
The EU discusses duties on agricultural products from Belarus and Russia, sanctions synchronization, and a railway blockade
March 18 – March 24
You Scratch My Back, I’ll Scratch Yours: EU Contemplates New Restrictions Against Belarus, Regime Introduces Counter-Sanctions
March 11 – March 17
“Blessed is he who believes?” The regime claims to have adapted to Western pressure
March 4 – March 10
The West condemns elections in Belarus, the regime responds with readiness for escalation
February 26 – March 3
Against the backdrop of the renewed migration crisis, NATO prepares for a new escalation
March 18 – March 24
It’s a bomb! Russian tactical nuclear weapons are already in Belarus
March 11 – March 17
All Hands on Deck! The Regime Prepares State Bodies for Wartime Operations
March 4 – March 10
When united, are we invincible? Belarus and Russia unify their army
February 26 – March 3
Democratic forces are developing cooperation with Euronest and contribute to the isolation of the regime
March 18 – March 24
“There’s no money, but you hang in there.” Independent media lose their voice in the media space
March 11 – March 17
Challenge for the Opposition-2025: How to Preserve Domestic Political Agency?
March 4 – March 10
Tsikhanouskaya’s Cabinet: A Hundred Years of Emigration?
February 26 – March 3
Lukashenka takes lessons from Jack Sparrow on expropriation of businesses
March 18 – March 24
“The Godfather”: Lukashenko’s Deeply Echeloned System
March 11 – March 17
Elections 2025: Lukashenka Forever
March 4 – March 10
Elections 2024: The Ruling Class Consolidates Its Monopoly on Power
February 26 – March 3