2017: System updates will continue. Main threats.
- The conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy, including the squeeze on the Belarusian leadership over visa, economic (privatisation) and currency issues
- The power block may strengthen positions in the Belarusian government, and different nomenclature groups are likely to step up the struggle for administrative rent
- The Belarusian authorities may be tempted to resume populist policies before important political events and inject liquidity to boost household incomes
- Amid falling household incomes and cutbacks in social protection programmes, latent tension in the Belarusian society is likely to grow; spontaneous protests are possible
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.