2017: System updates will continue. Main threats.
- The conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy, including the squeeze on the Belarusian leadership over visa, economic (privatisation) and currency issues
- The power block may strengthen positions in the Belarusian government, and different nomenclature groups are likely to step up the struggle for administrative rent
- The Belarusian authorities may be tempted to resume populist policies before important political events and inject liquidity to boost household incomes
- Amid falling household incomes and cutbacks in social protection programmes, latent tension in the Belarusian society is likely to grow; spontaneous protests are possible
According to Decree No. 221 of June 23rd, 2017, deadlines for the completion of foreign trade operations have been extended from 90 to 180 days for exports and from 60 to 90 days for imports. Delayed payments entailed a fine up to 2% of the transaction cost for each day of the delay, but could not exceed the total cost of the transaction. Most companies, when working with new counterparties, require a deferred payment for a period of three to six months. Due to the new regulation, violations are likely to reduce in number, so as the fines. Trade enterprises are likely to expand the assortment list due to the supply of new products in small lots, and the assortment list of exported Belarusian goods could expand, too. The new terms for completing foreign trade transactions would enable medium and small companies on the foreign trade market, exporters and importers are likely to grow in number and the geography of export-import operations could expand.