2017: System updates will continue. Forecast for 2017.

January 03, 2017 10:51

Forecast for 2017:

 

- The state is likely to preserve the monopoly in the economy, while somewhat updating approaches to the state property management

- Due to cutbacks in social protection, wage and job cuts, social tension is likely to grow

- The state is likely to extend co-optation policy to minimise influence of different political groups

- The opposition is unlikely to unite, but is likely to retain constructive tactics aimed at participation

- The law enforcement is likely to continue to intervene in conflicts between nomenclature groups

- The Russo-Belarusian confrontation over cooperation terms is likely to carry on, but may become less intense

- Belarus is likely to pursue normalisation with the West

 

The main threat is that the conflict between Minsk and Moscow is likely to build up; Russia may increase the price of support for the Belarusian economy.

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Increase in terms of currency proceeds return may increase number of Belarusian exporters
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According to Decree No. 221 of June 23rd, 2017, deadlines for the completion of foreign trade operations have been extended from 90 to 180 days for exports and from 60 to 90 days for imports. Delayed payments entailed a fine up to 2% of the transaction cost for each day of the delay, but could not exceed the total cost of the transaction. Most companies, when working with new counterparties, require a deferred payment for a period of three to six months. Due to the new regulation, violations are likely to reduce in number, so as the fines. Trade enterprises are likely to expand the assortment list due to the supply of new products in small lots, and the assortment list of exported Belarusian goods could expand, too. The new terms for completing foreign trade transactions would enable medium and small companies on the foreign trade market, exporters and importers are likely to grow in number and the geography of export-import operations could expand.