Talks about Russian air base deployment in Belarus continue

April 22, 2016 18:32

On June 5th, during the Council of CIS Defense Ministers meeting in Minsk, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reiterated that Russia was planning to establish a military commander in Belarus in 2013 and deploy a joint air base in the future.

Belarus has not yet officially confirmed the deployment of Russian air base in Belarus, implying that negotiations are still ongoing. High political risks force Belarusian military officers to refrain from comments on the matter.

Over the past month and a half Minister Shoigu has twice declared that Russia was planning to deploy its Aviation Regiment in Belarus. However, his statements should be treated with a degree of skepticism since there was no clear official confirmation of this information by Belarus until now.

Belarusian media quoted Shoigu in terms of Russia’s plans to deploy a Russian air base in Belarus (this time they referred to ‘a joint Belarusian-Russian airbase’). It is also know that Chief Russian Air Force arrived in Belarus to look for a suitable airfield for the airbase.

So far, the information about the airbase is only coming from Russia, which implies that Belarus treats the issue rather as a plan, not a final agreement and wants to use it as a stake in the ongoing negotiations ‘clarifying’ these arrangements (in April 2013 President Lukashenko said that the agreement was mainly about Russian fighter jets supply to equip the Belarusian army, and that the Air base deployment was only a plan).

Potentially, the political uncertainty keeps Belarusian military officials from comments on the issue: neither of them wants to risk taking responsibility. In addition, during the past two years Belarus’ Air Force and Air Defense command was subjected to harsh personnel purges (especially after the ‘teddy bear’ drop in July 2012), which also affected their attitudes.

On June 3rd, just before the Minsk Summit, Belarus’ Deputy Chief of Staff for Research Oleg Krivonos made a sleek statement that in the future Belarus was planning to host the ‘modern combat aircraft means and air defense systems in response to the defense missile deployment in Europe’. However, the plan’s details - what kind of missiles, deployment terms, timing and place - were not disclosed.

Thus, the Russian Ministry of Defense statements should be treated as “dissenting opinion”, residing on certain bilateral agreements however the final decision is yet to be made on the political level and will depend on the success of Russo-Belarusian negotiations on economic cooperation between Putin and Lukashenko.

The cornerstones of these negotiations are privatization in Belarus and oil supply in Q3 and Q4 2013. In addition, Belarus is interested in obtaining modern Russian weapons on favorable terms, which was mentioned by President Lukashenko on June 5th.

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The Belarusian authorities have launched a discussion on the moratorium or abolition of the death penalty under the pressure of Belarusian human rights activists and international community. Apparently, the authorities are interested in monitoring public sentiments and response to the possible abolition of the capital punishment. The introduction of a moratorium on the death penalty would depend on the dynamics in Belarusian-European relations, efforts of the civil society organisations and Western capitals.

In Grodno last week, the possibility of abolishing the death penalty in Belarus or introducing a moratorium was discussed.

The Belarusian authorities are likely to continue to support the death penalty in Belarus. During his rule, President Lukashenka pardoned only one person, and courts sentenced to death more than 400 people since the early 1990s. Over the past year, Belarusian courts sentenced to death several persons and one person was executed.

There are no recent independent polls about people’s attitude about the death penalty in Belarus. Apparently, this issue is not a priority for the population. In many ways, public opinion about the abolition of the death penalty would depend on the tone of the state-owned media reports.

That said, the Belarusian Orthodox Church and the Roman-Catholic Church stand for the abolition of the capital punishment, however their efforts in this regard only limit to public statements about their stance. Simultaneously, the authorities could have influenced public opinion about the death penalty through a focused media campaign in the state media. As they did, for example, with the nuclear power plant construction in Astravets. Initially unpopular project of the NPP construction was broadly promoted in the state media, and eventually, according to independent pollsters, was accepted by most population.