Minsk relies on normalising relations with European Union in near future
The Belarusian government seeks to use the opportunities, which events in Ukraine have opened, in order to soften the EU countries’ stands. Authorities in Minsk believe the relations with the European Union could be improved on their terms, i.e. without any changes in domestic policy and without releasing political prisoners. Meanwhile, if the Belarusian authorities do not get sufficient resources to buy the population’s loyalty ahead of the presidential elections, they might tighten the environment for opposition activity.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkyavichus disagreed with some Lithuanian media that Russia might use Belarus to put pressure on Lithuania, including using territorial claims.
The Belarus’ Foreign Ministry has become more active in the EU countries, which has already yielded some positive results. Statements by Belarus’ officials in Poland, Lithuania, Hungary and some other EU countries, imply that the governments of these countries have started revising their attitudes towards the Belarusian leadership.
The Belarusian authorities pin hopes on the new EU member-states to soften their stands, because their reactions to the Russian aggression in Ukraine have been rather acute. Primarily, these countries include the Baltic countries, Poland and other countries of the ‘Warsaw Pact’, which have had a negative experience of the Soviet invasion in the second half of the twentieth century.
It should be noted that the Belarus’ Foreign Ministry’s main lines have not changed, rather gained a new dimension amid events in Ukraine: the current leadership preserves the county’s independence; President Lukashenko ensures political stability and secure borders, including migration policy. Belarus’ Foreign Minister Makei emphasised, that “We must pay a tribute, and Europe also has to acknowledge this, that it is due to the incumbent President, that Belarus has her own, independent foreign policy, no matter how difficult it is. Thanks to the current president, we preserved the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country”.
As evidenced by the World Ice Hockey Championships’ organisation, Belarus has ignored calls from Western capitals to ensure citizens’ political freedoms. When it concerned public safety, the Belarusian authorities traditionally used force. Before and during the World Ice Hockey Championships several dozen youth and opposition activists, including representatives of the independent media, were detained and arrested in Minsk and in the regions.
Belarus’ authorities will seek to normalise relations with European capitals in the near future. However, the Belarusian government will not improve the domestic political climate and will not release political prisoners.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.