Minsk-Kiev: love is gone, but mutual interest remains

December 19, 2016 11:31
Фота: "Наша Ніва"

Statements by Ukrainian politicians about a possible closure of the Minsk process and potential military threats from Belarus, are not least because of the internal political process in Ukraine. Although a crisis matures in the Belarusian-Ukrainian political relations, the pragmatic bilateral interest outweighs politics.

Being at war, Ukraine is very sensitive to Belarusian moves contrary to the position of Kyiv. Belarus, due to complex relations with Russia, cannot take a clear pro-Ukrainian position. Hence, growing political distrust between the two states is only natural.

While not denying the validity of Kyiv’s claims to Minsk, the following should be marked.

Amid socio-economic crisis in Ukraine, external threat has united Ukrainian society and distracted it from domestic issues. This could explain recurrent untrue statements by Ukrainian high-level politicians about the concentration of the Russian troops on the Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine. Minsk agreements and the Minsk process were imposed on Ukraine. Both, the Ukrainian society and political elite are not satisfied with the results of Minsk talks. There is a political demand for a de facto waiver of Minsk agreements by Ukraine, hence, doubts about Belarus' equidistance from the parties to the conflict is only part of a complex mosaic.

That said, Kyiv rejected several proposals from Minsk, aimed at creating a system of trust in the security field between the two states, referring to undue close relations between Belarus and Russia. Kyiv believes there is a threat that sensitive information may leak to Moscow, i.e. there is lack of trust to Belarus.

Minsk is ready to give some guarantees to Kyiv in the security sphere within its capacities and interests. Obviously, Ukraine anticipated something more. Meanwhile, de facto bilateral cooperation in various fields is so important for both states, that neither Belarus nor Ukraine is ready to give up the benefits it brings. In this situation, Kyiv is unlikely to take any action, which could damage the existing cooperation between Belarus and Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian politicians are likely to tighten their rhetoric vis-a-vis Belarus. Albeit the trust between the leaders of the two countries fell sharply, pragmatic interests would guarantee conflict-free Belarusian-Ukrainian relations.

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