Minsk hopes not to complicate relations with EU

Last week, four Young Front activists among those detained in the “militants’ case” were released from the KGB detention centre, but the number of those accused of “training and preparing for participation in mass riots” increased up to 10 people. The Belarusian authorities are testing Western capitals’ reaction to tougher attitude to their domestic opponents and grope for the red line in the Belarusian-European relations. In all likelihood, the restrained response of the EU and the US to the repressive actions of the Belarusian security forces was in line with Minsk’s expectations, as it seeks to expand the room for manoeuvre without deteriorating relations with Western capitals in the case the protest movement in the country builds up. The authorities are likely to stretch investigation in the “militant’s’ case” and keep about a dozen detainees. The authorities are likely to avoid a large-scale criminal prosecution of activists and the appearance of new political prisoners, especially in the case of a clear signal from Brussels and Washington.