FORECAST FOR 2012
The economic agreements signed by President Lukashenko in Moscow and the first major sale of the assets of the Belarusian Beltransgaz will strengthen the political authority of President Lukashenko and his administration for a while.
It is also likely, that the proceeds received just in time, will allow the authorities to restore the lost popularity among the population, and in particular, the electoral rating of the President. At the same time, the security forces and the Government will continue fighting for the preservation of the conquered positions, which will only decrease the level control over the whole public administration system of Belarus.
The stabilization period in question, will last no longer than six months to a year. After that period, the acute issue of how to keep up citizen’s standard of living and the popularity of the authorities will return back on the agenda, most likely leading to a new management crisis.
In 2012 the main trends of the previous years will continue: the external debt will grow, there will be a shortage of the gold reserves, there will be some non-transparent privatization deals, competitive ability will deteriorate, incomes will fall, unemployment will rise and hidden labour migration to Russia will increase, there will be investment crisis and the gradual decay of production facilities.
The government has once again demonstrated that it would implement economic reforms under strong external pressure by creditors only. 2012 will inevitably result in recession and deindustrialization, increasing misbalances in the key sectors of economy and flows of financial resources, as well as general voluntarism and unpredictability in the economic policy.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.