Entrepreneurial strike: benefits and risks for the government

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April 22, 2016 18:33

On June 27th, a nationwide strike of entrepreneurs against pre-certification of goods’ sales in the Custom Union space was held in Belarus.

Entrepreneurs’ strike against the Customs Union rules provides the authorities with an additional argument in bargaining with Russia on economic preferences within the Eurasian integration. Simultaneously, independent and pro-active behaviour of entrepreneurs create a threat to the authorities, entailing harsh retaliatory sanctions against the protests’ organizers.

Belarusian entrepreneurs believe that the new quality certificate procedure for light industry goods sold in the Customs Union space is too expensive and unnecessarily increases their costs. In response, the Belarusian authorities have promised to delay by one year the introduction of certification, but they failed in settling the issue entirely. Following the strike, the protesters applied for a permission to hold a rally on July 15th in Minsk against the certification procedure.

In the authorities’ view, the situation has both positive and negative sides. The protest against the Customs Union rules and threats to exit the CU (entrepreneurs have already announced that they had started collecting signatures for Belarus’ exit from the CU) will definitely be used by the authorities in couloirs negotiations with Russia on broader economic and trade preferences for Belarus in the Eurasian integration (energy, industrial goods).

However, overly independent entrepreneurial activity - especially the street protests - is a threat to the authorities. In addition, the ruling group is not interested in additional players interfering with the negotiations with the Kremlin (entrepreneurs have already addressed the Eurasian Economic Commission to resolve the certification issue).

Potentially, the authorities will use the protesters’ arguments, and especially the threat to quit the CU while Moscow negotiations. However, public solidarity between authorities and entrepreneurs should not be anticipated because of the ruling group desire to maintain bargaining monopoly in the Eurasian Economic Commission.

Therefore, during the strike the authorities acted quite typical. After the protests they detained a number of independent media journalists who covered the event, as well as the strike’s organizer business association "Perspective" Chairman Anatoly Shumchanka, who was sentenced to five days in jail for holding an unsanctioned event.

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Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries entangle in confrontation spiral
October 02, 2017 11:57
Фото: RFRM

Over the past year, military-political relations between Minsk and Kyiv have become complicated. Due to their high inertia and peculiarities, this downward trend would be extremely difficult to overcome.

The root cause of the crisis is the absence of a common political agenda in the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Minsk is looking for a market for Belarusian exports in Ukraine and offers its services as a negotiation platform for the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, thereby hoping to avoid political issues in the dialogue with Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for political support from Minsk in the confrontation with Moscow. In addition, Ukraine’s integration with NATO presupposes her common position with the Alliance in relation to Belarus. The NATO leadership regards the Belarusian Armed Forces as an integral part of the Russian military machine in the western strategic front (the Baltic states and Poland). In addition, the ongoing military reform in Ukraine envisages a reduction in the number of generals and the domestic political struggle makes some Ukrainian top military leaders targets in politically motivated attacks.

Hence, the criticism of Belarus coming from Ukrainian military leadership is dictated primarily by internal and external political considerations, as well as by the need to protect the interests of generals, and only then by facts.

For instance, initially, the Ukrainian military leadership made statements about 100,000 Russian servicemen allegedly taking part in the Russo-Belarusian military drill West-2017. Then the exercises were labelled quazi-open and military observers from Ukraine refused to provide their assessment, which caused a negative reaction in Minsk. Further, without citing specific facts, it was stated that Russia was building up its military presence in Belarus.

Apparently, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries have entangled in a confrontational spiral (on the level of rhetoric). Moreover, only a small part of the overly hidden process has been disclosed. That said, third states are very likely to take advantage of the situation (or have already done so). This is not only about Russia.

The Belarusian Defence Ministry officials are restrained in assessing their Ukrainian counterparts. However, such a restraint is not enough. Current military-political relations between Belarus and Ukraine are unlikely to stabilise without the intervention of both presidents.

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