Belarusian Foreign Ministry has temporarily surrendered initiative to law enforcement but has not abandoned dialogue with EU
Amid somewhat reduced interest of the EU in Belarus and growing geopolitical confrontation in the region, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry has passed the initiative to the power block. However, Minsk is unlikely to neither curtail the settlement process with Western capitals, nor provoke a tough response to new political prisoners from Brussels and Washington. The authorities could also attempt to undermine the reputation of Vilnius in the eyes Belarusian civil society and international community due to the case of the trade union leaders and thereby neutralize its attempts to draw attention to the Belarusian NPP on the international arena.
Amid the extension of the EU sanctions against Russia and growing tension between Moscow and Washington, Minsk aspires to reduce the attention of the Western capitals to the trade union leaders case. In addition, the authorities have presented the case of trade union as prosecution purely for economic reasons, based the information about the trade union accounts in Vilnius disclosed by the Lithuanian banks in 2011. The Belarusian authorities are unlikely to jeopardize the Belarusian-European relations with new political prisoners. Minsk hopes for a mild response from international trade union associations to the prosecution of Belarusian trade union leaders. That said, independent trade unions in Belarus do not have a common position and law enforcement has taken advantage of tension among trade union leaders regarding cooperation with foreign partners.
In addition, Minsk could aim to discredit Lithuania in the eyes of Belarusian civil society and international community, and, most likely, to play down Lithuanian efforts in prompting a harsh response to the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant construction. Vilnius often hosts events of the Belarusian civil society and the opposition, who oppose the NPP construction in Belarus and support Lithuania’s efforts in blocking the construction in Ostrovets.
Minsk is not interested in worsening relations with Kyiv, especially in the Belarusian-European context. Following several reports in the independent media about the supplies of Belarusian produces to eastern parts of Ukraine not controlled by the Kyiv authorities and Crimea, Ukrainian Ambassador Igor Kizim threatened with possible sanctions against Belarusian enterprises, including by the EU, should the facts of direct supplies confirm. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry ignored his statement and downplayed the issue. Minsk is confident of the Kyiv's reluctance to aggravate relations with its northern neighbour, especially before the Russo-Belarusian military drill.
Overall, as regards the trade union case, Minsk is ready for critical statements from western capitals and has prepared an economic justification for the pressure on independent trade unions. Law enforcement is likely to relax its grip in the trade union case as the Foreign Ministry steps back on the stage following anticipated harsh statements, especially if social and political stability inside the country retains.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.