Belarus will attempt to escape military entanglement between NATO and Russia

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July 25, 2016 23:09

Belarus’ calls for reconciliation between Russia and the West, and her cautious attitude to the military activity in the region is hardly a sign of pacifism. The Belarusian authorities are well aware that as the confrontation between Moscow and NATO deepens, they would find it increasingly difficult to pursue a policy of equidistance from the parties to the conflict. In addition, enhanced military presence in the region is creating additional threats of clashes between the parties to the conflict.

NATO and Russia stepping-up their activities and a military build-up close to Belarusian borders has complicated the situation for Minsk and narrowed the room for manoeuvre in relations with Moscow. Nevertheless, Belarus has avoided harsh rhetoric and has not taken explicitly pro-Kremlin stance on regional security issues.

June has been marked by full-scale NATO exercises very close to the Belarusian border. On June 7th, 2016, NATO launched Anaconda-2016, its largest exercise. Other exercises, such as ‘Swift Response’, ‘Baltops’, and ‘Saber Strike’ are held in parallel. Their scenario carries a clear message for the Kremlin: the Alliance is consolidated and has the political will and capacity to protect its members. All Russia’s attempts to divide the Euro-Atlantic community were to no avail.

The Belarusian authorities are explicitly neutral when speaking about the ongoing events. The state propaganda is only outlining facts, without making any assessments. The Belarusian leadership has claimed to have interest in both, the West and the East and pointed to the lack of interest in aggravating the situation in the region. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry has concluded that contradictions between the key centres of power in Europe over security matters are gradually transforming into a real military build-up. That said, the Belarusian authorities do not hide their negative attitude towards the foreign military presence in the neighbouring states, as such steps only escalate the conflict. In this respect, according to the Belarusian authorities, Belarus’ refusal to enable the deployment of a Russian military base in Belarus in autumn 2015 could be a positive example for all the neighbouring countries. However, the military build-up near the Belarusian borders is already irreversible. Minsk can only observe the Kremlin’s military preparations in Russia. The Belarusian authorities do not have any influence on the Russian plans.

The unfolding situation is a challenge for the Belarusian authorities. Minsk cannon bluntly disregard Moscow’s views on regional security issues. Moreover, it has move towards Moscow in order to downplay concerns in the Kremlin about the possible ‘betrayal’ of Russia’s interests by Belarus. That said, such concerns are only increasing. Having this in mind, one should treat the statement by the Ukrainian intelligence about the air reconnaissance of facilities in the neighbouring states by the Russian military from the Belarusian airspace, accordingly. The Belarusian authorities are pursuing the strategy of balancing, when each step towards the West and Ukraine is balanced by a gesture towards Russia and vice versa. Evidently, this state of affairs will be preserved in the near future.

Belarusian authorities are consistent in their negative perception of NATO’s increasing military activity in the region and the deployment of military contingents in the neighbouring states. This could be due to fears of possible reaction from Russia, which is reinforcing its military forces in the west. Moscow may step up its pressure on Minsk in order to drag Belarus into the confrontation on the Russian side. The fact, that influential circles in Moscow regard the post-Soviet space as a field for confrontation with the West, means that the Belarusian authorities do not have other means than foreign policy manoeuvring. If the confrontation enhances, such tactics may become a challenge and after a certain point, simply impossible. And Belarus will be forced to chose: between a losing option with Russia against the West, and any other option, not necessarily in favour of the West, but which will be regarded by the Kremlin as anti-Russian.

Image: thinkstanks.by

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Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries entangle in confrontation spiral
October 02, 2017 11:57
Фото: RFRM

Over the past year, military-political relations between Minsk and Kyiv have become complicated. Due to their high inertia and peculiarities, this downward trend would be extremely difficult to overcome.

The root cause of the crisis is the absence of a common political agenda in the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Minsk is looking for a market for Belarusian exports in Ukraine and offers its services as a negotiation platform for the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, thereby hoping to avoid political issues in the dialogue with Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for political support from Minsk in the confrontation with Moscow. In addition, Ukraine’s integration with NATO presupposes her common position with the Alliance in relation to Belarus. The NATO leadership regards the Belarusian Armed Forces as an integral part of the Russian military machine in the western strategic front (the Baltic states and Poland). In addition, the ongoing military reform in Ukraine envisages a reduction in the number of generals and the domestic political struggle makes some Ukrainian top military leaders targets in politically motivated attacks.

Hence, the criticism of Belarus coming from Ukrainian military leadership is dictated primarily by internal and external political considerations, as well as by the need to protect the interests of generals, and only then by facts.

For instance, initially, the Ukrainian military leadership made statements about 100,000 Russian servicemen allegedly taking part in the Russo-Belarusian military drill West-2017. Then the exercises were labelled quazi-open and military observers from Ukraine refused to provide their assessment, which caused a negative reaction in Minsk. Further, without citing specific facts, it was stated that Russia was building up its military presence in Belarus.

Apparently, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries have entangled in a confrontational spiral (on the level of rhetoric). Moreover, only a small part of the overly hidden process has been disclosed. That said, third states are very likely to take advantage of the situation (or have already done so). This is not only about Russia.

The Belarusian Defence Ministry officials are restrained in assessing their Ukrainian counterparts. However, such a restraint is not enough. Current military-political relations between Belarus and Ukraine are unlikely to stabilise without the intervention of both presidents.

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