The Authorities Choose How to Respond to Violations of Belarus’ Airspace
On July 4, the Swedish media published a video of a single-engine airplane with two passengers on board crossing Belarus’ border from the territory of Lithuania and dropping teddy-bears with texts in support of freedom of speech in Belarus over the town of Ivyanets. Later on, local citizens presented evidence of the incident. The Belarusian authorities either give no comment or deny any violation of Belarus’ airspace.
The level of media publicity drawn by the incident establishes a framework for response from the Belarusian authorities. They vary from strictly punishing and dismissing the guilty persons to acknowledging drawbacks in the air defense system and the need for modernization. In reality, the authorities have avoided choosing between these two extremes and have postponed taking a decision, due to their reluctance to acknowledge the mistake. Their unwillingness to make a final decision is also explained by an acute shortage of management personnel in the Air Force, the high cost of retrofitting an air defense system and the lack of reaction from Russia.
There is evidence that proves the incident. Swedish activists presented a video recording of the flight, there is evidence from local citizens and Ivanyets’ Chief of the Communal service, as well as a press release from the Lithuanian Air Forces which acknowledges a violation of their airspace on July 4. According to the Swedish activists, the duration of the flight over Belarusian territory was about an hour and a half.
However, the Belarusian State Border Committee denies the fact that Belarus’ airspace was violated. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that the video and photos of the flight were crude fakes. Such a restrained stance of the Belarusian law enforcement agencies is explained by at least three factors.
Firstly, the commanders of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces are unwilling to acknowledge their mistake, especially after the national holiday on July 3, Independence Day, during which the special honour is given to the military forces (the incident occurred the morning after the holiday).
Secondly, commanders of Belarus’ Air Force and Air Defense Forces have been changed twice in the last eighteen months. To acknowledge such a grave mistake would lead to the recently appointed officers being dismissed.
Finally, on July 5, President Lukashenko took part in the commencement of the Faculty of General Staff of the Armed Forces Academy of Belarus, where he personally handed the diplomas and awards to graduates, among whom were also soldiers from Russia and Kazakhstan.
Even if Belarusian military officials have not found the courage to report Lukashenko about the incident, he has reasons not to give any comment on the mistake of the Belarusian air defense system which is a part of Russia and Belarus’ joint regional air defense system.
However, the growth of media publicity, especially from the Russian media (on July 5, the First Russian federal TV channel released a news story) may force the president’s entourage to take some action.
In this case the President will be forced to make decisions in a fairly narrow framework and to choose between the two conventional ways: traditional or modernization.
The traditional way implies finding and punishing the guilty parties, but this choice is complicated by the high volatility in the Ministry of Defense personnel. In November 2011, the former commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of Belarus Igor Azarenok was sentenced to 9.5 years of imprisonment for bribery . In February 2012, Azarenok’s successor in office Major-General Sergei Lemeshevsky was discharged for discrediting the military ranks. A current commander Major-General Pakhmelkin has been in office for less than a year. Such a high staff turnover has a negative impact on work of the Defense Ministry in general and military capabilities of the air defense system in particular. Therefore, President Lukashenko is hardly interested in continuing such rigid personnel policies.
A second way, namely of modernization, accounts for the acknowledgement of the mistake and modernization of Belarus’ air defense system. Although it is quite up-to-date, it is not capable of tracking targets flying lower than 20-30 meters above the ground. According to some military experts, the solution to the problem would be to introduce a new radar system such as \"Rosa RB,\" which can detect targets at a height of several meters above the ground. This path is painful for the Belarusian authorities, who view any recognition of their mistakes as a sign of weakness.
As a result, the Belarusian authorities prefer to avoid deciding how to respond. They continue to keep silent about the incident. The Belarusian authorities might be forced to take action in the near future if Russia reacts to the incident. If the attention from the media or Russia’s law enforcement agencies increases, Belarus will have to respond. A decline in attention will most likely allow the issue to drift; several officials from the Ministry of Defense might be dismissed without attracting public attention.
The rapid increase in wages has led to a decline in the ratio between labour productivity and real wages to one. Previously, the rule was that enterprises, in which the state owned more than 50% of shares in the founding capital, were not allowed increasing salaries if this ratio was equal to or less than one. The authorities are unlikely to be able to meet the wage growth requirement without long-term consequences for the economy. Hence, the government is likely to contain wage growth for the sake of economic growth.
According to Belstat, In January – August 2017, GDP growth was 1.6%. The economic revival has led to an increase in wages. In August, the average monthly wage was BYN 844.4 or USD 435, i.e. grew by 6.6% since early 2017, adjusted for inflation. This has reduced the ratio between labour productivity and real wages from 1.03 in January 2017 to 1 in the first seven months of 2017. This parameter should not be less than 1, otherwise, the economy starts accumulating imbalances.
The need for faster growth in labour productivity over wage growth was stated in Decree No 744 of July 31st, 2014. The decree enabled wages growth at state organizations and organizations with more than 50% of state-owned shares only if the ratio between growth in labour productivity and wages was higher than 1. Taking into account the state's share in the economy, this rule has had impact on most of the country's key enterprises. In 2013 -2014 wages grew rapidly, which resulted in devaluation in 2014-2015.
Faster wage growth as compared with growth in labour productivity carries a number of risks. Enterprises increase cost of wages, which subsequently leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of products on the domestic and foreign markets. In construction, wholesale, retail trade, and some other industries the growth rate of prime cost in 2017 outpaces the dynamics of revenue growth. This is likely to lead to a decrease in profits and a decrease in investments for further development. Amid wage growth, the population is likely to increase import consumption and reduce currency sales, which would reduce the National Bank's ability to repay foreign and domestic liabilities.
The Belarusian government is facing a dilemma – either to comply with the president’s requirement of a BYN 1000 monthly wage, which could lead to new economic imbalances and could further affect the national currency value, or to suspend the wage growth in order to retain the achieved economic results. That said, the first option bears a greater number of negative consequences for the nomenclature.
Overall, the rapid growth in wages no longer corresponds the pace of economic development. The government is likely to retain the economic growth and retrain further growth in wages. Staff reshuffles are unlikely to follow the failure to meet the wage growth requirement.