Amid thaw with West, Belarus will not change repressive domestic policies
The political opposition and civil society in Belarus view the increased contacts between the Belarusian authorities and the West as a repetition of the 2008-2010 “thaw” in Belarusian-European relations. Even though the Belarusian authorities are expected to somewhat decrease the repressive crackdown on the opposition ahead of the elections, they are unlikely to give them as much freedom as in 2008-2010. In addition, amid rising threats to Belarus’ independence from the Kremlin, the opposition and civil society fear that the authorities might limit their influence on the Belarusian-European relations’ agenda.
At an OSCE workshop, Belarus’ Deputy Foreign Minister Kupchina said that the Belarusian authorities were ready for a dialogue on media freedom.
The bulk of the opposition welcomed the revival between official Minsk and Western capitals. Amid the Russo-Ukrainian crisis, the opposition and civil society hope that a settlement in Belarusian-European relations might reduce threats to Belarus’ independence from the Kremlin.
The so-called “radical” opposition, which stands for full isolation of the Belarusian authorities until they fulfil all requirements put forward by Western capitals, has lost ground considerably – due to domestic repressions and forced emigration of its main leaders. Moreover, many opposition-minded people inside Belarus no longer support such an approach due to fears that the Russo-Ukrainian scenario might repeat in Belarus if the Belarusian state weakens because of the protests.
Amid the crisis in Ukraine, the vast majority of the opposition lean towards the idea of building a triangle: the EU, official Minsk and Belarus’ civil society. Meanwhile, in 2014 the Belarusian authorities were able to reduce the impact of civil society on the Belarusian-European relations’ agenda, including bypassing the political requirements for resuming the dialogue between Minsk and Brussels. Moreover, with growing geopolitical threats in the region, part of the opposition is ready to agree to de-politicising Belarusian-European relations and to bilateral cooperation between Minsk and Brussels.
Belarusian experts believe that there are two potential scenarios for Belarusian-European relations in the coming years. The first and most likely one is that the 2008-2010 “thaw” in Minsk and Brussels relations might see a repetition. This means that the Belarus-EU upbeat cooperation might last until the presidential elections in 2015, which would traditionally result in the crackdown on the opposition and renewed isolation of the Belarusian authorities. Neither the Belarusian authorities nor the bulk of the opposition wants this scenario. The second scenario is that Belarus-EU relations might develop much like EU-Azerbaijan relations, i.e. that civil society’s role would be minimised. Either way, the Belarusian authorities would not allow any systemic or even symbolic changes in the domestic policy and would not soften traditionally repressive approach to the opposition.
In proof of the above, immediately after the visit of the OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media, Dunja Mijatovic, three independent journalists were detained in Minsk. In addition, a Mogilev-based journalist was accused of collaborating with foreign media (Deutsche Welle) without due accreditation and his apartment was searched. Moreover, human rights activists reported that in H2 2014 political arrests peaked since the “social networks revolution” protests in mid-2011.
Regardless of how Belarus-EU relations develop in the future, the Belarusian authorities will continue to purge the opposition and independent media ahead of the presidential campaign in 2015. If the “thaw” in Belarus-EU relations persists, the authorities will have to demonstrate their desire to promote dialogue with civil society within the country.
During searches of social and "green" activists and anarchists, law enforcement has seized computers, mobile phones and publications. The authorities have also exerted additional pressure on supporters of unauthorized street protests and independent lawyers, who represented defendants in the White Legion case. The security services have stepped up the persecution of opponents before the street protests announced by the opposition. Apparently, the Belarusian authorities aspire that participants in street protests would reduce in number and that the low interest of the population to socio-political agenda before the local election campaign would retain.