No one expects a fair vote count
The situation has not changed
On 11 October, Belarus will hold presidential elections. The Belarusian authorities try to create an image of democratic elections at a time when Alexander Lukashenka looks weak due to the economic recession.
Realistically no one expects a fair vote count. The official results will be produced to bring victory to Alexander Lukashenka. But there are three things that can significantly change the perception of the campaign: access to the vote count, the number of votes against Lukashenka and the post-election period.
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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Situation in Belarus
April 8 – April 14
Constitutional referendum: main consequences
April 12, 2022
Speakers: Anatoliy Lebedko, Andrei Kazakevich
Video
How to count the political prisoners: are the new criteria needed?
March 28, 2022
Speakers: Aleh Hulak, Aleh Aheyeu, Viachaslau Kasinierau
Video
Paternalism In Decline, Belarusian Euroscepticism, And The Influence Of Russia
October 11, 2021
Video
Belarus: “High-Risk Country”
April 8 – April 14
Human Rights in Belarus Remain a Focus of Western Attention
April 1 – April 7
The noose tightens: Poland and the Baltic States take initiative in combating sanctions evasion
March 25 – March 31
The EU discusses duties on agricultural products from Belarus and Russia, sanctions synchronization, and a railway blockade
March 18 – March 24
Co-aggressor or Peacemaker?
April 8 – April 14
Belarus Suspends CFE Treaty: Preparing for War?
April 1 – April 7
Playing with fire. The Kremlin and Minsk consider the possibility of using nuclear weapons
March 25 – March 31
Against the backdrop of the renewed migration crisis, NATO prepares for a new escalation
March 18 – March 24
The Coordination Council Returns to the Agenda of the Democratic Movement
April 8 – April 14
The Coordination Council: A Toxic Asset or a Key Element of the Democratic Forces’ Architecture?
April 1 – April 7
“Hawks” of Democratic Forces: Blitzkrieg Narratives for Political Migrants
March 25 – March 31
Democratic forces are developing cooperation with Euronest and contribute to the isolation of the regime
March 18 – March 24
Deficit of Loyal Staff, “Wolf Ticket” for Dissenters
April 8 – April 14
Lukashenka’s Social Contract-2024: Guarantees for the Security Forces, Whip for Others
April 1 – April 7
The Lukashenka Pyramid: A Dilemma of Two Peaks
March 25 – March 31
Lukashenka takes lessons from Jack Sparrow on expropriation of businesses
March 18 – March 24