Belarusian international reserves would increase in 2017 if Belarus gains access to external borrowing markets

According to the Monetary Policy Programme for 2017, by late 2017 Belarus plans to increase her international reserves by IMF terms by USD 0.5 billion as compared to January 1^st, 2017. Taking into account Belarus’ commitments vis-a-vis the EEU Anti-Crisis Fund, Belarusian international reserves on January 1^st, 2017 should total circa USD 4.9 billion. In order to ensure reserves’ growth until the end of 2016, the Finance Ministry and the National Bank will release new bonds with one-year maturity period and will prepare for issuing Eurobonds worth USD 800 million. Eurobonds would be issued upon completion of talks with the IMF. In turn, the population due to falling incomes and rising utility tariffs will continue to reduce demand for foreign currency. Nevertheless, due to the expected failures in foreign trade, Belarus is unlikely to be able to service her public debt in full. Belarus’ international reserves are unlikely to grow in 2017 without additional loans.