Tightening of monetary policy
The National Bank of Belarus on 1 June 2011 raised the refinancing rate by 2 % to 16% per annum.
Moreover, the government decided to stop granting preferential loans for the acquisition of Belarusian goods. Preferential loans for the purchase of Belarusian goods are issued by JSC “Belarusbank”, Belinvestbank, JSC “BPS-Bank”, Belagroprombank for up to three years at an annual rate of 10%.
While tightening the monetary policy, as well as bearing in mind the rising prices, the NBoB consistently raises interest rates, including the deposit IRs. However, restoring confidence in the banking system and stemming the outflow of deposits is only feasible after the stabilization of the situation on the foreign currency exchange market. Currently, the situation remains tense, although not critical for the banking system.
The Government should continue reducing the gross domestic demand via suspension of various schemes of concessional lending to enterprises and population, while the National Bank should continue raising interest rates.
The country's leadership has instructed the local authorities to raise minimum wages at enterprises by the end of 2019 to BYN 1,000, which would lead to an increase in the average wage in the economy as a whole to BYN 1 500. The pace of wage growth in 2017 is insufficient to ensure payroll at BYN 1000 by late 2017 without manipulating statistical indicators. In order to fulfil the president’s order, the government would have to increase budgetary expenditures on wages in healthcare and education, enterprises – to carry out further layoffs and expand the practice of taking loans to pay wages and restrict investment in modernisation of fixed assets. In 2010, the artificial increase in wages led to a threefold devaluation in 2011, an increase in the average salary to BYN 1500 will not match the capabilities of the economy and would lead to yet another devaluation.