State support programmes in Belarus may become obstacle for new IMF loan
On July 8th – 15th, an IMF evaluation team will work in Belarus in order to assess whether Belarus has applied adequate efforts to reform the economy sufficient to obtain a new loan from the IMF. In view of the measures the state has undertaken to support the economy and the volume of such support, the IMF may decide that the efforts were insufficient and strengthened structural imbalances in the economy, thus requiring the national currency devaluation. Consideration of a new IMF loan programme is likely to be postponed until after the elections. Taking into account the expected debt refinancing by Russia, Belarus requires addition USD 1.5-2 billion. In August 2015, foreign currency bonds may be repaid from foreign exchange reserves and partially from new loans on foreign and domestic market.
The Belarusian authorities have launched a discussion on the moratorium or abolition of the death penalty under the pressure of Belarusian human rights activists and international community. Apparently, the authorities are interested in monitoring public sentiments and response to the possible abolition of the capital punishment. The introduction of a moratorium on the death penalty would depend on the dynamics in Belarusian-European relations, efforts of the civil society organisations and Western capitals.
In Grodno last week, the possibility of abolishing the death penalty in Belarus or introducing a moratorium was discussed.
The Belarusian authorities are likely to continue to support the death penalty in Belarus. During his rule, President Lukashenka pardoned only one person, and courts sentenced to death more than 400 people since the early 1990s. Over the past year, Belarusian courts sentenced to death several persons and one person was executed.
There are no recent independent polls about people’s attitude about the death penalty in Belarus. Apparently, this issue is not a priority for the population. In many ways, public opinion about the abolition of the death penalty would depend on the tone of the state-owned media reports.
That said, the Belarusian Orthodox Church and the Roman-Catholic Church stand for the abolition of the capital punishment, however their efforts in this regard only limit to public statements about their stance. Simultaneously, the authorities could have influenced public opinion about the death penalty through a focused media campaign in the state media. As they did, for example, with the nuclear power plant construction in Astravets. Initially unpopular project of the NPP construction was broadly promoted in the state media, and eventually, according to independent pollsters, was accepted by most population.