State support programmes in Belarus may become obstacle for new IMF loan
On July 8th – 15th, an IMF evaluation team will work in Belarus in order to assess whether Belarus has applied adequate efforts to reform the economy sufficient to obtain a new loan from the IMF. In view of the measures the state has undertaken to support the economy and the volume of such support, the IMF may decide that the efforts were insufficient and strengthened structural imbalances in the economy, thus requiring the national currency devaluation. Consideration of a new IMF loan programme is likely to be postponed until after the elections. Taking into account the expected debt refinancing by Russia, Belarus requires addition USD 1.5-2 billion. In August 2015, foreign currency bonds may be repaid from foreign exchange reserves and partially from new loans on foreign and domestic market.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.