Repairs at Naftan will worsen economic statistics in short term
Naftan oil refinery will undergo a planned overhaul from mid-August to mid-September 2014, i.e. two-thirds of the refinery will stop working.
The refinery last had a major overhaul in September-October 2011. A break in Naftan’s operations will imply reduced oil imports and oil products export, wholesale trade figures will be corrected downwards, the industrial production index in the Vitebsk region may drop below the August 2013 standard, leading to slower growth and GRP dynamics. However, the overhaul will have only short-term effects, and the Vitebsk region will improve its performance by as soon as October 2014.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.