Quarterly results of the economic development in Mogilev
The growth rate of the gross regional product constituted 109.5% with the annual forecast of 109-110%. The best economic indices among the industrial enterprises of the region had Mogotex OJSC (Mogilev) and the Bobruisk Republican Unitary Enterprise “Hydrolytic Plant”.
According to the governor of the region, Peter Rudnik, the Presidential Administration is drafting a Decree to register the Mogilev region with the National Board of Honour as the winner of the competition in terms of socio-economic development among the regions of the country in 2006-2010.
The growth rate of the gross regional product is the blueprint of the planned GDP grown of Belarus for 2011 (+9,5-10%). However, regardless of the growth of the gross regional product, the stocks of finished goods are growing too. In January and February, the stocks have increased by Br 167 billion and constituted Br 632 billion, which is due to the fact that during the two months of the quarter only 93.2% of the produced goods were shipped. The Head of the Executive Committee set the task to reduce stockpiles to the level of early 2011 at least, which means up to Br 465 billion. The regional authorities are particularly concerned that during the first quarter of 2011 the amount of foreign direct investment in the Mogilev region amounted to $ 3.9 million only.
Over the past year, military-political relations between Minsk and Kyiv have become complicated. Due to their high inertia and peculiarities, this downward trend would be extremely difficult to overcome.
The root cause of the crisis is the absence of a common political agenda in the Belarusian-Ukrainian relations. Minsk is looking for a market for Belarusian exports in Ukraine and offers its services as a negotiation platform for the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, thereby hoping to avoid political issues in the dialogue with Kiev. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hoping for political support from Minsk in the confrontation with Moscow. In addition, Ukraine’s integration with NATO presupposes her common position with the Alliance in relation to Belarus. The NATO leadership regards the Belarusian Armed Forces as an integral part of the Russian military machine in the western strategic front (the Baltic states and Poland). In addition, the ongoing military reform in Ukraine envisages a reduction in the number of generals and the domestic political struggle makes some Ukrainian top military leaders targets in politically motivated attacks.
Hence, the criticism of Belarus coming from Ukrainian military leadership is dictated primarily by internal and external political considerations, as well as by the need to protect the interests of generals, and only then by facts.
For instance, initially, the Ukrainian military leadership made statements about 100,000 Russian servicemen allegedly taking part in the Russo-Belarusian military drill West-2017. Then the exercises were labelled quazi-open and military observers from Ukraine refused to provide their assessment, which caused a negative reaction in Minsk. Further, without citing specific facts, it was stated that Russia was building up its military presence in Belarus.
Apparently, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Defence Ministries have entangled in a confrontational spiral (on the level of rhetoric). Moreover, only a small part of the overly hidden process has been disclosed. That said, third states are very likely to take advantage of the situation (or have already done so). This is not only about Russia.
The Belarusian Defence Ministry officials are restrained in assessing their Ukrainian counterparts. However, such a restraint is not enough. Current military-political relations between Belarus and Ukraine are unlikely to stabilise without the intervention of both presidents.