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No economic growth in Belarus in 2016

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April 22, 2016 19:38

Belarus’ socio-economic development forecast for 2016 envisages GDP growth at 0.3%. In 2015, for the first time in the last 15 years, GDP will reduce by at least 3.5%. Amid low base in 2015, the minimum growth forecast for 2016 means Belarus lacks drivers of economic growth. In 2016, real incomes will fall, the tax and administrative burden on profitable businesses will increase in order to keep large giants of mechanical engineering afloat, and social protection for the population will be cut. If oil prices continue to fall, the national currency exchange rate may be adjusted in order to improve competitiveness of the Belarusian exports.

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The Belarusian authorities regard the Catholic conference as yet another international event to promote Minsk as a global negotiating platform. Minsk’s proposal to organise a meeting between the Roman-Catholic Church and the Russian Orthodox Church is rather an image-making undertaking than a serious intention. However, the authorities could somewhat extend the opportunities for the Roman-Catholic Church in Belarus due to developing contacts with the Catholic world.

Minsk is attempting to lay out a mosaic from various international religious, political and sportive events to shape a positive image of Belarus for promoting the Helsinki 2.0 idea.

Belarus’ invitation to the head of the Holy See for a meeting with the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church should be regarded as a continuation of her foreign policy efforts in shaping Minsk’s peacekeeping image and enhancing Belarus’ international weight. The Belarusian authorities are aware that their initiative is unlikely to find supporters among the leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church in Moscow. In Russia, isolationist sentiments prevail.

In addition, for domestic audiences, the authorities make up for the lack of tangible economic growth with demonstrations of growth in Minsk’s authority at international level through providing a platform for religious, sportive and other dialogues.

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