Lower interest rates in economy could make some Belarusian industries profitable in 2017
Thanks to the stability of the Belarusian rouble and decreased credit burden on enterprises, in January 2017 the Belarusian economy reported some profit. High interest payments on loans often ate up all profits in some industries and the agriculture. Lower interest rates in the economy enabled enterprises to save more than BYN 100 million on interest payments in just one month, which would facilitate cost-effectiveness in some industries.
According to the Belstat, in January 2017, net profit in the Belarusian economy totalled BYN 550 million. During the same period in 2016, the economy reported losses at BYN 1 554 million due to devaluation processes, which led to exchange rate differences. In 2017, the national currency was relatively stable. Meanwhile, every fourth enterprise in Belarus was unprofitable with the total count of 1836 entities. In January 2017, six out of 17 types of industrial production reported losses, including the most losses in oil refining.
Previously, interest rates on loans played an important role in financial performance of enterprises. In 2016, enterprises spent BYN 4 billion to repay interest on loans, which was only 9% less than the total net profit in the economy. In metallurgy, cement production and agriculture, interest payments were higher than the overall profits from product sales, and the total amount spent to repay the principal debt on loans including interest, exceeded half of all their revenues. In this case, apparently banks controlled most financial flows in industry.
Since April 2016, the National Bank has been consistently reducing the discount rate. In nine months, the rate fell from 24% to 15% per annum. The discount rate has a direct impact on the cost of loans for enterprises and their servicing costs. In January 2017, enterprises spent BYN 301 million to service loans, which was 25% less than in January 2016. Given the current situation with excess liquidity and government pressure on the National Bank regarding further rate cuts, interest rates on loans are likely to continue to reduce, leading to an overall decrease in the debt burden on enterprises. Wood processing, some machine-building enterprises and vehicle manufacturers are likely to report some profits. Cement factories and metallurgists are likely to reduce their losses in comparison with the previous year, albeit profits are unlikely in these industries due to high production costs.
Overall, some improvements in financial indicators in the Belarusian economy were partly due to the decrease in the loan servicing costs for enterprises. Amid anticipated further reductions in the interest rates, some industries could report profits in the future and chronically loss-making cement plants could reduce losses and lower appetite for required state aid.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.