International reserves would grow if Belarus secured additional loans
According to the National Bank, Belarus' foreign currency reserves as of September 1st, 2017 totalled USD 6.99 billion and grew by USD 2 billion in January – August 2017. Belarus’ international reserves have grown due to numerous borrowings on foreign markets. In January -July 2017, Belarus raised USD 2 572 million in foreign loans. In addition, Belarus anticipates a USD 700 million interstate loan from Russia to repay her international liabilities. The Finance Ministry and the National Bank are likely to continue to borrow on the domestic market, net sales of foreign currency by the population are likely to decrease, and Belarus could earn additional currency from reselling Russian oil and keeping the export duty. Belarus’ proceeds from international trade are unlikely to cover all the needs to service her public debt. Belarus’ international reserves’ volume would depend on the agreement to refinance her public debt or new loan agreements.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.