Industry prospects depend on Russian market
December 2014 saw the industrial production index go lower than 100% in comparison to the same month last year (the last time this happened was in February 2014).
The cumulative production growth of 1.9% as of 2014 year-end created a high comparative base for the 2015 index numbers. Under current conditions, the industry will be unable to demonstrate production growth, and it is reasonable to expect operational indicators to decrease. Devaluation will create difficulties for buying materials as a result of restrictions on price rises, but the competitive ability of the exported goods will be restored as a result of a further fall in the Belarusian ruble. If the economic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate, the big enterprises which are oriented towards the Russian market could see a large fall in their production levels, and underemployment and social instability may rise.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.