Growth in industrial production in Belarus will be insufficient to overcome economic downturn in 2017

According to the National Statistics Committee, in January 2017 Belarus’ GDP contracted by 0.5% despite industrial production growth by 5.9%. Industry accounts for 25% of Belarus’ GDP. GDP contracted due to the negative dynamics in the construction, wholesale and retail trade. Positive dynamic is likely to persist in most types of industrial production, except petroleum refining. Wages are likely to grow compared with the same period in 2016. In order to overcome the downturn in the construction industry, volumes of soft loans may be revised upwards. Amid increased demand for products in some industrial sectors, layoffs may stop. High rate of industrial production is only possible if Russia resumes full oil supplies. Overcoming the economic recession without improving the situation in the construction industry and substantially improving people’s wages, is hardly possible.