Government drafted a list of enterprises for privatization worth USD 2.5 billion
Without changing the fundamental approaches to privatization, its results in 2012 will not much differ from 2011. In 2012 there will be one or two major deals in favour of the Russian capital, and a couple of dozens in favour of domestic investors.
The Belarusian Government has drafted a list of companies worth at least $ 2.5 billion to be sold this year in order to fulfill its commitments vis-?-vis the ACF of the EurAsEC. In the near future the list will be submitted to Alexander Lukashenko. The Belarusian authorities plan to put on sale in 2012 state shares in 133 enterprises including 83, which were not sold in 2011. In 2013 22 companies will be put on sale: the list of 13 included in a three-year privatization plan was amended with nine new companies.
During an enlarged meeting of the collegium of the Ministry of Industry on 2 February Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Rumas criticized the work of the State Property Committee and other government agencies, both regarding the pace of privatization and its management by the governmental agencies. Rumas said, the results of the sales of state owned stakes in 2011 (state owned shares of 34 enterprises were sold) were “disappointing, and even disastrous”. Criticism of the Deputy Prime Minister is both legitimate and routine, designed for external consumption: Lukashenko has the full authority in terms of decision making regarding large property privatization.
Foreign investors will be put off by the image of the country’s authorities, poor business climate, as well as by significantly inflated prices of assets.
The companies not sold in 2011 will face similar fate in 2012 by the virtue of their general unattractiveness to investors and inflated prices for their assets. At the same time, under the requirement of compulsory privatization worth USD 2.5 billion, Russia will once again buy the best assets. Most likely, the pool of shares to be sold will include shares in oil refineries and petrochemicals, banks and telecommunication enterprises. Chances of a sale of shares of MAZ or Belaruskali seem low.
Since USD 2.5 billion is not enough to pay the debts while maintaining internal macroeconomic balance, and the new loans in 2012 are hardly probable, internal privatization will prevail. Large enterprises and chains will buy small business in the real and retail sectors. Either Russian or nomenclature capital will be behind these investors. In any case, with the redistribution of property internal tensions within the elites, in particular in the regions where the executive branch “fights” against the security forces, will increase.
President Lukashenka continues to rotate staff and rejuvenate heads of departments and universities following new appointments in regional administrations. Apparently, new Information Minister Karliukevich could somewhat relax the state policy towards the independent media and introduce technological solutions for retaining control over Belarus’ information space. New rectors could strengthen the trend for soft Belarusization in the regions and tighten the disciplinary and ideological control over the student movement in the capital.
President Lukashenka has appointed new ministers of culture and information, the new rector of the Belarusian State University and heads of three universities, assistants in the Minsk and Vitebsk regions.
The new Information Minister Karliukevich is likely to avoid controversial initiatives similar to those former Minister Ananich was famous for, however, certainly within his capacities. Nevertheless, the appointment of Belarusian-speaking writer Karliukevich could be regarded as the state’s cautious attempt to relax environment in the media field and ensure the sovereignty of national media.
The Belarusian leadership has consolidated the trend for mild Belarusization by appointing a young historian and a ‘reasonable nationalist’, Duk as the rector at the Kuleshov State University in Mogilev. Meanwhile, while choosing the head of the Belarusian State University, the president apparently had in mind the strengthening of the ideological loyalty among the teaching staff and students at the main university in order to keep the youth movement at bay. Previously, Korol was the rector of the Kupala State University in Grodno, where he held purges among the disloyal teaching staff.
The trend for the renewal of mid-ranking executives and their rejuvenation has confirmed. The age of the Culture Minister and three new rectors varies from 39 to 44 years old.