GDP to continue to fall after completion of harvesting campaign in Belarus
In January-August 2015, GDP shrank by 3.5%, while in January-July – by 4%. The dynamics has improved thanks to the harvesting campaign, which was delayed compared with 2014. Until the end of the year, further economic slowdown should be expected due to falling incomes and deterioration in the wholesale trade, transport and industrial production. The state will continue to provide financial support to key industrial enterprises in order to preserve the employment rates (MAZ, MTZ, BelAZ, and Atlant). Demand for Belarusian produces on foreign markets is unlikely to increase due to a large share of Russia in trade turnover and preservation of sanctions against her. GDP may somewhat improve through the production of innovative products and focus on the EU market, however, unfavourable investment climate does not encourage new businesses to emerge at a good pace.
The Belarusian authorities have launched a discussion on the moratorium or abolition of the death penalty under the pressure of Belarusian human rights activists and international community. Apparently, the authorities are interested in monitoring public sentiments and response to the possible abolition of the capital punishment. The introduction of a moratorium on the death penalty would depend on the dynamics in Belarusian-European relations, efforts of the civil society organisations and Western capitals.
In Grodno last week, the possibility of abolishing the death penalty in Belarus or introducing a moratorium was discussed.
The Belarusian authorities are likely to continue to support the death penalty in Belarus. During his rule, President Lukashenka pardoned only one person, and courts sentenced to death more than 400 people since the early 1990s. Over the past year, Belarusian courts sentenced to death several persons and one person was executed.
There are no recent independent polls about people’s attitude about the death penalty in Belarus. Apparently, this issue is not a priority for the population. In many ways, public opinion about the abolition of the death penalty would depend on the tone of the state-owned media reports.
That said, the Belarusian Orthodox Church and the Roman-Catholic Church stand for the abolition of the capital punishment, however their efforts in this regard only limit to public statements about their stance. Simultaneously, the authorities could have influenced public opinion about the death penalty through a focused media campaign in the state media. As they did, for example, with the nuclear power plant construction in Astravets. Initially unpopular project of the NPP construction was broadly promoted in the state media, and eventually, according to independent pollsters, was accepted by most population.