Foreign trade of Belarus will improve only if refining and potash sales perform well

According to the National Statistics Committee, in May 2015, foreign trade deficit totalled USD 163.8 million, the lowest value since January 2015. The improvement was due to a record high volume of potash exports in May 2015 and the increase in exports of petroleum products to foreign markets. Thanks to recently signed agreements for potash supplies to India and China, Belarus is likely to increase her potash sales on the world potash market. The situation with petroleum products supplies largely depends on the world oil prices and supplies of Russian oil to Belarus in Q3 2015. If world potash and oil prices fall, Belarus will be unable to meet her projected export volumes for 2015. Extended sanctions against Russia have increased the risk of further reduction in bilateral trade – mainly concerning the supply of engineering products to the Russian market.